SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Price is temporarily Stable, with Short-term Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, both softwood pulp and hardwood pulp maintained a stable trend last week. On December 20th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,250 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on December 15th. On December 20th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,448 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on December 15th.

On the supply side: The expected increase in pulp imports in November was realized, with a month on month increase of 4.8% to 2.801 million tons. Overseas offers remained stable in December, but with the weakening of external demand, there is a possibility of increased pressure on the import side. In addition, there will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and overall supply pressure still exists.

On the demand side: Currently, downstream paper prices have significantly improved and shown an upward trend, leading to an increase in market production and sales, which has a positive impact on pulp prices. Although there are signs of improvement in the willingness to collect pulp in downstream paper mills, the sustainability is still insufficient, so the price of wood pulp is temporarily maintaining a stable range.

Domestic port data: Last week, the cumulative inventory of domestic ports reached a medium to high level. As of December 19, 2024, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.918 million tons, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.145 million tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous period; The inventory of Changshu Port was 521,000 tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous period.

In terms of futures, the price of pulp futures fluctuated upward after the relocation last week. As of December 20th, the opening price of the main contract of sp2503 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,762 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,782 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,806 RMB/ton, the daily increase was 0.42%, the trading volume was 129,500 lots, and the position was 151,205 lots.

SunSirs wood pulp analyst believes that the frequent price increase letters from downstream paper mills have played a certain supporting role in pulp prices. However, with the increase in the amount of pulp arriving at the port, the supply pressure will increase. Therefore, under the mutual pressure of supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will maintain a range of fluctuations.

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