SunSirs: China PVC Market Continued to Decline Last Week

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend last week (12.16-20). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4,980 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.64% during the week.

Since December, PVC prices have continued to decline. Last week, due to a lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, The price of PVC continues to decline. On the one hand, due to the impact of low upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the poor performance of the futures market has put pressure on the spot market. Combined with the loose performance of supply and demand, the operating rate of manufacturers has generally increased in the past two months, with over half of them operating at full capacity. Supply pressure is prominent, and dealer offers are declining steadily. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4,850-5,080 RMB/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since December, the price of calcium carbide has started to decline, mainly from high levels. According to data monitored by SunSirs, the price of calcium carbide fell by 0.58% last week. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that there will be a slight surplus of PVC supply and demand in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

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