SunSirs: Expected Weak and Volatile China Domestic Soybean Meal Prices in the Near Future

On December 27th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that firstly, China's imported soybean inventory is still at a high level, and there will still be a large number of soybean purchases in the future. It is expected that the imported soybean arrivals from December to February 2025 will be 7.5 million tons, 5.5 million tons, and 4.5 million tons respectively. In recent months, the overall supply of imported soybeans in China has been loose. Secondly, there is a strong expectation of high soybean yields in South America, and the import cost of Brazilian soybeans in the far months is lower than that of American soybeans.

According to monitoring, on December 25th, 2025, the CNF quotation for Brazilian soybean imports scheduled for March 2025 was 397 US dollars/ton, and the dutiable price at the port in southern China was 3,309 RMB/ton. Based on the soybean oil price of 7,600 RMB/ton, the selling price of soybean meal at the break even point of the oil plant should be 2,500 RMB/ton.

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