SunSirs: China Refined Petroleum Coke Market has Continued to Decline recently

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has been continuously declining recently. As of December 31, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1,615.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.47% from 1,673.00 RMB/ton on December 23.

Cost wise: Recently, crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with US crude oil inventories decreasing more than expected by the market. Coupled with signs of geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen after the Christmas holiday.

Supply side: Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been average, and refinery prices have fluctuated. At the end of the month, downstream enterprises mainly received goods for urgent needs, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Recently, the import of sponge coke has mainly been based on previous orders, with limited new orders signed. The price of locally refined petroleum coke has fallen recently, and downstream purchasing attitudes are biased towards low-priced coke.

Demand side: Currently, the overall trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is light, with only a few large factories receiving relatively large orders recently. The overall market performance is weak, but although demand is insufficient, some manufacturers have indicated that they have fallen close to the cost line, and their willingness to continue to loosen the market in the future is not high. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has slightly declined, mainly due to the decline in the raw material petroleum coke market, limited downstream procurement demand, and average market transactions.

In December, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots decreased slightly. As of December 30th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 473,000 tons, compared to 553,000 tons on November 31st, and 80,000 tons were sold out. In December, some regions reduced production. Sichuan region reduced production due to entering the dry season, with an expected reduction of around 200,000 tons. Some enterprises in Guangxi region reduced production slightly due to cost factors. As of December, the operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was around 43 million tons, an increase of 3% compared to the same period last year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Currently, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement of petroleum coke is average, which has limited support for the petroleum coke market. However, the inventory of petroleum coke by local refineries is currently low, and with the approach of the end of the year, downstream may replenish before the holiday. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may rise in January.

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