SunSirs: Unstable Supply, TDI Price Center Shifted Upward in December
January 02 2025 10:21:39 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall TDI market in East China rose in December, with a step-by-step increase. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12,650 RMB/ton, and on December 31, the TDI price was 12,850 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.58% during the month and a decrease of 23.51% year-on-year.
Analysis review
In December, the TDI market in East China was significantly affected by the supply side. Since the beginning of the month, mainstream factories have been undergoing maintenance and temporary shutdowns, resulting in a temporary shortage of spot goods and slow filling of TDI sources, leading to a rise in prices. Mainstream factories had a strong willingness to raise prices. In mid December, with the resumption of equipment operation and an increase in production load, downstream resistance to high priced sources of goods became apparent, resulting in a slight decline in TDI prices. Subsequently, the market stabilized and operated until the end of the month.
Supply side: Shanghai Kesi Chuang restarted on December 11th, Yantai Wanhua stopped on December 20th, and restarted on December 26th. The TDI units of Xinjiang Juli and Fujian Wanhua were operating unstably and will start operating at medium to high loads at the end of the month.
The upstream toluene market fluctuated and rose. As of December 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6,052 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.33% from the price of 5,800 RMB/ton on December 1st. The overall trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose within the month, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The demand for gasoline in Shandong has improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of diversified enterprises has also rebounded to some extent. The overall ex factory prices of refineries in Shandong have risen, and the atmosphere in the spot market was good.
Market outlook
The TDI data analyst from SunSirs believes that the decline in settlement for some factories in December led to an unstable focus of the TDI market, mediocre downstream demand performance, mainly completed contract customers, and a shortage of new orders. It is expected that the TDI market will operate to be weaker in the short term.
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