SunSirs: China Domestic Ship Fuel Market overall Rose in December 2024

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic ship fuel market overall rose in December. As of December 31st, the average price of domestic fuel oil at 180CST was 5,504.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.00% from 5,396.00 RMB/ton on December 1st.

After the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST rose in December, the main trend was consolidation. In the first half of the month, the volatile rise in crude oil prices boosted the domestic ship fuel market, and the prices of blended raw materials rose, leading to an increase in the ship fuel oil market; In the second half of the month, the prices of mixed raw materials for ship fuel will be weak, coupled with limited oil replenishment by downstream shipping market owners, resulting in sluggish transactions, and the ship fuel market will mainly be consolidated. According to SunSirs, as of December 31st, the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil in Dalian area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5,800 RMB/ton, and the self pickup low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,900 RMB/ton; The self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil in the Shanghai area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5,370 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,470 RMB/ton.

The international crude oil market in December was mainly volatile, with the main positive factors being: the market believes that the Asian economy is expected to improve, coupled with the risk of new sanctions faced by some oil producing countries, and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories.

In terms of international fuel oil, it is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): as of the week ending January 1, Singapore's fuel oil inventories fell by 861000 barrels to a 3-week low of 20.957 million barrels; Singapore's intermediate distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.183 million barrels to a 25 week low of 8.84 million barrels; Singapore's light distillate inventories rose by 863,000 barrels to a 30 week high of 16.048 million barrels.

Market forecast: The recent rise in international crude oil prices has boosted the domestic ship fuel market, but the decline in the mixed raw material market has limited support for the domestic ship fuel market, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment has increased; In the shipping market, coastal bulk cargo prices remain stable at a low level, and shipping terminals mainly rely on essential procurement, resulting in light transactions. At present, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil is 5,350-5,500 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,450-5,600 RMB/ton, subject to negotiation. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will experience weak consolidation in the near future.

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