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SunSirs: Corrugated Paper's Upward Trend Slows Down and Remains Short-term Stability

January 06 2025 15:00:13     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper remained stable with small fluctuations this week, with a slight upward trend. On January 3, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,918 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared to the average price on December 29.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region has stopped rising and fallen this week. Domestic paper mill waste paper prices have shown varying degrees of decline. On January 3, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang region was 1,678 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the average price on December 29. With the significant increase in the price of waste paper in the early stage, packaging stations have been more active in shipping, which has led to an increase in the amount of waste paper received by paper mills. With the continuous increase in waste paper inventory in paper mills, the demand for waste paper has decreased, resulting in a reduction in waste paper prices. The decline in waste paper has weakened the support for corrugated paper prices, leading to a slowdown in the upward trend of corrugated paper prices.

On the supply side: With the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the production of corrugated paper in paper mills is currently running steadily, so the market supply is relatively stable. But the decline in the price of waste paper raw materials this week has provided weak support for corrugated paper. In addition, with the latest release of the provisional tariff rate table for imported goods, corrugated paper will continue to implement zero tariffs in 2025, which is beneficial for the import volume of corrugated paper and the supply may increase.

In terms of demand: After the positive performance of demand in the early stage, the price of corrugated paper is at a high level, which has led to a decrease in downstream purchasing intentions. The recent increase needs to be confirmed, and the production and sales rate of finished paper in some regions has slowed down. The sales strategy of small and medium-sized paper mills tends to be conservative, or mainly focus on stable shipments.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that recently, Nine Dragons Paper issued a notice to lower the price of corrugated paper, which has caused a decline in the trend of the corrugated paper market. In addition, with the decrease in waste paper prices, paper mills have entered a wait-and-see state of the future market trend, and it is expected that the short-term corrugated paper prices will mainly remain stable and wait and see.

 

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