SunSirs: Phosphate fertilizer price reduction, ammonium biphosphate and DAP trend is sluggish (4.1-4.16)
April 17 2020 10:02:08 SunSirs (Molly)
According to SunSirs data, the average ex-factory price of powdered monoamm onium was 2083 yuan / ton on April 1, and the average ex-factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2066 yuan / ton on April 16, with a price drop of 0.80%. The commodity index of monoammonium phosphate on April 16 was 69.18, which was the same as yesterday, a decrease of 31.40% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and an increase of 11.42% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017 . (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
According to SunSirs data, the average factory price of 64% diammonium on April 1 was 2225 yuan / ton, and the average factory price of 64% diammonium on April 16 was 2217 yuan / ton, down 0.34%. The commodity index of diammonium phosphate on April 16 was 66.14, which was the same as yesterday, a decrease of 35.77% from the highest point in the cycle of 102.98 (2011-10-08), and an increase of 0.79% from the lowest point of 65.62 on March 04, 2020 . (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 now)
2. Market analysis
Anhui: The domestic monoammonium phosphate market has been sluggish since April, and new domestic orders are scarce. The factory price of 55% powder in Anhui is 1950-2050 yuan / ton, and the construction is stable. The factory price of 55% powder in Hubei is about 1950 yuan-2000 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 60% powder ammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan has maintained stable operation. The factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1950 yuan / ton, and the construction is stable. The factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong is RMB 1950-2050 / ton, and the price is stable. The factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 2,000 yuan / ton.
Hubei: The domestic dihydrogen phosphate market has been weak since April, most of the companies have shipped normally, and export orders have increased. At present, the factory price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 2200-2250 yuan / ton, the factory price of 64% diammonium in Shandong is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, the factory price of 64% diammonium in Yungui is 2300-2450 / ton, Anhui 64% diammonium mainstream ex-factory prices in the region are 2200-2350 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 64% diammonium in Gansu is 2300-2400 yuan / ton.
Industrial chain: Entering 4 months, the domestic market of raw material phosphate ore is still at a low level and stable operation, the market is mostly in the state of arrangement, the market's new orders are generally sold, and the on-site construction continues to slowly increase. The raw material sulphur domestic market is indifferent, the enthusiasm for downstream purchases is not high, the port stocks are high, and consumption is slow. With the end of spring farming fertilizers and the export of phosphate fertilizers is not yet clear, the market stalemate is strong and wait-and-see, the industry is unstable. At present, domestic supply and demand performance is stalemate, and downstream follow-up is insufficient.
Industry: According to SunSirs price monitoring, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there were 0 commodities that rose in the price list of phosphorus chemical products, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities that went up and down. The main commodities that fell were: phosphoric acid (-3.47%), monoammonium phosphate (-0.80%), and yellow phosphorus (-0.61%). This week's average increase or decrease was -0.98%.
3. Future market forecast
SunSirs ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the current phosphate fertilizer season is over, the supply of ammonium phosphate is excessive, and downstream demand is weakening. In an environment of strong supply and weak demand, the price of monoammonium slowly declined. Diammonium shifted from domestic to export, and prices continued to slump. The trend of monoammonium will still be adjusted downwards, and diammonium will still run weakly. It is recommended to focus on real-time market changes.
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