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SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Remain on the Rise or Stabilize in the Short Term

January 13 2025 15:24:47     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, softwood pulp and hardwood pulp were still in an upward trend last week. On January 10, 2025, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.78% compared to the average price on January 5. On January 10th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,690 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.86% compared to the average price on January 5th.

On the supply side: Compared with the import volume of pulp in January of previous years, the import volume is mostly at a low level, which makes the market supply relatively loose. In addition, in January 2025, pulp prices for external markets have all increased, boosting market sentiment. Domestic buyers have a high enthusiasm for receiving goods, which provides some support for pulp prices.

On the demand side: Due to the earlier Spring Festival this year compared to previous years, downstream stocking has also been advanced, resulting in a certain demand for replenishment in the market recently. Restocking before the end of the year also drives strong paper prices and production and sales. Driven by replenishment in various stages of the industry, pulp has entered a fluctuating upward trend.

Domestic port data: Last week, domestic port inventory showed a narrow trend of destocking. As of January 9, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 1.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous period and a decrease of 0.3% month on month. However, the mainstream domestic port Qingdao Port has shown a narrow trend of destocking, with more broad-leaved pulp than coniferous pulp in the port, and the daily shipping speed has not changed much. Changshu Port, on the other hand, showed a trend of accumulating inventory, with a slower shipping speed during the week but a cumulative shipment of over 70,000 tons.

In terms of futures, pulp futures prices fluctuated this week. As of January 10, 2025, the opening price of the main contract SP2503 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,876 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,852 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,902 RMB/ton, the daily decline was 0.81%, the trading volume was 125200 lots, and the position was 90245 lots.

According to the wood pulp analyst from SunSirs, pulp prices may receive some support before the Spring Festival due to domestic demand for replenishing inventory and seasonal consumption. However, there is no significant shortage of pulp in the long term, and the previous production of broad-leaved pulp will continue to release pressure. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp may stop rising and return to stability.

 

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