SunSirs: China EVA Market Fluctuated and Declined in 2024, and the Price may slightly Decrease by 2025

In 2024, the production of EVA in the domestic market will continue to grow, and the pressure on the supply side will not decrease. In addition, downstream demand is not as expected, resulting in an overall fluctuation and decline in market prices. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of December 31, 2024, the domestic EVA market price was 10,533 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.87% from the beginning price of 11,433 RMB/ton. The high point during the cycle was 12,166 RMB/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 10,083 RMB/ton.

At the beginning of the year, downstream stocks were prepared before the holiday, and after the Spring Festival, enterprise production gradually started. Demand gradually improved, driving EVA prices to fluctuate and rise in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the downstream EVA industry gradually entered the traditional off-season of demand, and the demand for foam, hot melt adhesive and other industries gradually weakened. However, the demand for photovoltaics fell short of expectations, coupled with Baofeng's new production capacity entering the market, the supply-demand contradiction in the EVA market became prominent, and prices fell under pressure. In July, the downstream EVA industry had weak demand during the off-season, and the market transaction center shifted downwards. In August, the main downstream photovoltaic film companies entered the market to replenish their inventory, and coupled with low production levels and little pressure on EVA supply, market prices rebounded slightly. In September, the demand for EVA did not perform as expected, and there was significant pressure on market shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in EVA prices once again. In the fourth quarter of 2024, EVA equipment maintenance occurred frequently, and imports continued to decrease. Coupled with the support of photovoltaic demand, the industry as a whole was in a state of destocking, and prices slightly rebounded.

Current situation of EVA fundamentals in 2024

In 2024, the growth rate of downstream photovoltaic installed capacity of domestic EVA will significantly slow down, and the demand for domestic photovoltaic EVA will increase but not as expected. According to the National Energy Administration, in November 2024, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China was 25.0GW, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% and a month on month increase of 22.4%. From January to November, the cumulative new installed photovoltaic capacity in China was 206.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. Compared to the total new installed capacity of 216.88GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 148%, the growth rate has significantly decreased.

In 2024, domestic EVA will continue to expand its capacity, with an effective EVA production capacity of nearly 3 million tons by the end of 2024. In February 2024, Ningxia Baofeng Energy's annual production of 250,000 tons of EVA project was successfully put into operation, and on October 26, Jiangsu Hongjing's 200,000 tons/year photovoltaic grade ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) project was successfully launched in one go.

In 2024, EVA imports decreased and exports increased significantly year-on-year. With the continued expansion of domestic EVA production capacity and a significant increase in domestic EVA production, the domestic supply side has increased and prices have fluctuated downwards. The arbitrage window for EVA imports has relatively tightened, and EVA imports have significantly declined year-on-year. The pace of domestic material substitution for imported materials has significantly accelerated. In addition, due to the transfer of downstream shoe materials and other production capacity, EVA exports as raw materials have gradually increased. According to statistics, the net import volume of EVA in China from January to September 2024 was 543,400 tons, a decrease of 40% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the total import volume was 725,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.16%, and the total export volume was 191,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%.

Outlook for the EVA Market in 2025

In 2025, there are still plans to put new EVA devices into operation in China, and EVA production capacity continues to grow. The overall supply level of EVA in 2025 may be slightly higher than normal. Downstream photovoltaic demand will continue to support EVA. On the one hand, the domestic market predicts that China's installed capacity is expected to reach 300GW by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The global installed capacity of photovoltaics will also enter a new stage of high-speed growth of 10% -20%. However, under heavy trade barriers, photovoltaic exports may be affected to some extent. Overall, due to the impact of supply and demand, the EVA market in 2025 will mainly be classified into intervals, and the overall price level may slightly decrease compared to 2024.

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