SunSirs: It's Rising again! The Retail Price of China Refined Oil is Expected to Rise for the Second time in 2025

This round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on January 16th. The zero selling price of refined oil has been significantly increased, and the retail price in 2025 has experienced a "second consecutive rise". The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has already experienced one increase, and the crude oil market has risen sharply during the cycle. The zero selling price of refined oil in 2025 has been raised again.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market has risen significantly. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.04 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $82.03 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions against Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply of crude oil has been supported by favorable factors, leading to a significant increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of the 16th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was 7.35%, corresponding to a 340 RMB/ton increase in domestic gasoline retail prices, a 325 RMB/ton increase in diesel retail prices, a 0.26 RMB/liter increase in discounted prices for 92# gasoline, and a 0.27 RMB/liter increase for 95# gasoline. The price of 0 # diesel has been increased by 0.28 RMB/liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries is still at a low level recently. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 57%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 84%. The supply of refined oil products is normal. The Spring Festival travel rush is gradually beginning, with strong demand for essential goods. Gasoline terminal consumption has increased compared to before, and intermediaries are actively replenishing their inventory. In addition, with the decrease in temperature and the increase in the use of car air conditioning, it is favorable for the gasoline market. The overall trend of the gasoline market continues to rise, but the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand, and the gasoline market still has negative effects.

In terms of diesel, there has been little change in the supply side diesel market recently. In terms of demand, the northern region has been affected by the cold wave, and severe weather has restricted outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units from starting work. The outdoor operating rate and logistics transportation industry activity have decreased, which has suppressed the demand for diesel. However, in terms of cost, there is strong support. In addition, the export side has driven diesel demand, and traders and end enterprises have been cautious in their procurement operations. Overall, the recent diesel price market has risen first and then fallen.

Looking at the future: Currently, there are many favorable factors supporting the crude oil market, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. Concerns about supply shortages still exist, coupled with favorable winter crude oil demand, the crude oil market is expected to remain high in the short term. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil has eased market pressure. The demand for gasoline is favorable, and during the Spring Festival travel rush, gasoline demand is strong, leading to an upward trend in gasoline market prices; There has been no actual improvement in diesel demand, and traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. The diesel market is mainly volatile in the short term.

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