SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Runs smoothly in January 2025, or It will Increase after the Spring Festival

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper remained stable in January 2025. On January 23rd, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,918 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on January 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials, in January 2025, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang Province will be weak and decline, and domestic waste paper prices will also show a downward trend. On January 23rd, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,614 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.27% compared to the average price on January 1st. After New Year's Day, the packaging station actively shipped goods, and the amount of paper mill waste paper received showed an increase. As the inventory of waste paper in the paper mill increases, the demand for waste paper decreases, resulting in a reduction in waste paper prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the national waste paper market is experiencing a widespread decline, indicating a continuous downward trend.

In terms of supply, the corrugated paper production in the paper mill will maintain stable operation in January 2025, resulting in a relatively stable market supply. The latest provisional tariff schedule for imported goods states that corrugated paper will continue to be subject to zero tariffs until 2025, which will continue to benefit the import volume of corrugated paper and increase the supply of imports. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, paper mills are gradually shutting down for maintenance, which is expected to reduce market supply and provide some positive support for the market trend.

On the demand side: Due to the high price of corrugated paper after the positive demand performance in the early stage, the downstream purchasing intention has decreased, and the production and sales rate of finished paper in some regions has slowed down. The sales strategy of small and medium-sized paper mills tends to be conservative. As downstream paper mills gradually increase their inventory, their purchasing enthusiasm has declined. Therefore, corrugated paper prices have remained stable this month, and the market is mainly in a wait-and-see state.

SunSirs paper analysts believe that the pre year stocking has basically ended, and both upstream and downstream paper mills have entered a state of Spring Festival shutdown. The corrugated paper market has shown a weak supply-demand trend, but recently leading paper mills have released plans for price increases after the year, and it is expected that the price of corrugated paper may rise after the year.

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