SunSirs: Multiple Negative Factors Combined, PTA Price Adjusted to be Weaker

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 22, the average price of PTA market in East China was 5,065 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

After taking office, Trump's previous sanctions may be overturned, and his policies such as increasing US crude oil production, imposing tariffs, and trade risks tend to be bearish on oil prices, leading to a short-term pullback in crude oil prices. As of January 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 75.83 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 79.29 US dollars per barrel.

The export volume of PTA in December 2024 was 258,000 tons, a decrease of 174,000 tons from November and a 40% decrease compared to the previous month. The main reason was that the commissioning of new PTA facilities abroad has led to a decrease in demand for Chinese PTA from abroad. Türkiye is China's largest export customer. In 2024, China exported 799,000 tons of PTA to Türkiye, accounting for 18% of China's total exports. In 2025, the design capacity of Türkiye's new PTA plant will be 1.5 million tons, and the supply increase will squeeze the export market share of China's PTA.

The maintenance of downstream polyester units continued to advance, and some individual units have also been opened. Overall, the polyester load continued to decrease to around 81%. According to statistics, it is expected that the maintenance loss of polyester in January and February will be 1.32 million tons, with polyester production capacity accounting for 15.4%. The terminal stocking phase has ended, and the polyester production will be reduced near the Spring Festival holiday. There is still room for further reduction.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts predict that the decline in crude oil and poor PTA exports will lead to a higher than expected accumulation of PTA inventory. In addition, the low purchasing enthusiasm of the demand side, combined with various negative factors, is expected to result in a weaker adjustment of PTA market before the Spring Festival.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.