SunSirs: China MTBE Market Fluctuates and Falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from February 5th to 14th, MTBE prices fell from 6,045 RMB/ton to 5,775 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 4.47% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 7.23%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.66%. After the holiday, the domestic MTBE market trend is weak, and the demand for gasoline terminals is sluggish. Industry players only purchase a small amount of related gasoline components on demand, and MTBE manufacturers' shipments are cold, with prices mainly falling and consolidating.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the continued sanctions imposed by the United States on some oil producing countries, market concerns about potential supply risks, and improvement in some economic data. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $75.02 per barrel.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures first rose and then fell, while the refined oil market weakly declined. In addition, with the end of the Spring Festival travel rush approaching, the frequency of private car travel by the public has decreased, the speed of inventory digestion by social units has slowed down, refineries have reduced prices and promotions, and middle and downstream businesses have purchased according to demand while consuming inventory. The market trading atmosphere is flat. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Manufacturers such as Haite Weiye and Maoming Shihua may have plans to start production, and there is an expectation of increased resource supply. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on February 13th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by 0.34 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at 752.37-754.37 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $4.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $898.99-899.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $7.48/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $811.99-812.34/ton (229.27-229.37 cents/gallon).

There is an expectation of an increase in resource supply in the future, but from the perspective of demand, the overall trend is weak, and there is a further expectation of price decline, which will be difficult to form significant support for the MTBE market. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

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