SunSirs: The Coexistence of Long and Short Factors has Led to a Decline in the Trend of China Local Refining of Gasoline and Diesel

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of refined gasoline and diesel in China declined last week. As of the weekend, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8,625 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.67% from last week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,937 RMB/ton, and the price trend decreased by 0.49% last week.

Cost aspect: The decline in crude oil prices has led to weak cost support

Recently, the international oil price market has mainly fallen. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, there is a possibility of ceasefire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to a decline in international oil prices. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined, resulting in a decrease in domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining production has decreased, and the supply side has significantly decreased

Recently, the operating rate of main refineries has declined, and the supply of resources has decreased. The operating rate of Shandong's local refineries has significantly decreased, with an average operating rate of around 45%, the lowest level in three years. The decline in local refinery operating rates has led to a decrease in the supply of refined oil products, which has provided some positive support for the market situation.

Demand side: Weakening demand situation and declining market trend

In terms of gasoline, the Spring Festival travel rush has ended, and gasoline terminal consumption has gradually declined. Gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main trend. Intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand, and the shrinking demand for gasoline has suppressed the gasoline market. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, and overall, the gasoline market has experienced a significant decline. In terms of diesel, the northern region is affected by weather conditions, which restrict outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units from starting work. The demand for diesel has not actually improved, and coupled with a decline in exports in January, the diesel market has been suppressed, resulting in a slight decline in the diesel market.

Future forecast: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. However, due to the expected reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the increase in crude oil production by the United States, crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate and decline in the short term. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate remains low, the supply of refined oil products alleviates market pressure, and the demand for gasoline weakens. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, resulting in a main decline in gasoline market prices; Although diesel is affected by the negative impact of crude oil costs, as temperatures rise and diesel demand continues to restart in the later stages, there is no shortage of rebound trends in diesel.

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