SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Prices Decline, wih Short-term Weak Stable Operation

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has shown a downward trend this week. On February 21, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,886 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the average price on February 16.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang Province has significantly decreased this week, and the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills has also accelerated its decline. On February 21, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang Province was 1,514 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.02% compared to the average price on February 16. Recently, the inventory of waste paper in paper mills in various regions has been relatively sufficient. The active shipment of waste paper from packaging stations has led to an increase in the amount of waste paper received by paper mills. In a state of oversupply, the price of waste paper continues to decline.

Supply side: Currently, paper mills across the country are resuming normal production, resulting in a continuous increase in supply. In 2025, the production capacity of corrugated paper will maintain a positive growth trend. According to currently released data, the planned new corrugated paper project production capacity in 2025 is about 2.29 million tons, and the increase in new production capacity will further intensify the market competition pattern.

In terms of demand: The current demand recovery in the corrugated paper market is not satisfactory, and the market maintains a state of rigid demand procurement. However, from March to August, it is the traditional off-season for consumption, and coupled with the recent increase in the frequency of paper price declines, there is a strong linkage between corrugated paper and paper prices, resulting in a loose downward trend in corrugated paper prices.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current corrugated paper market has shown a relatively weak trend, with a continuous oversupply situation. In addition, the continuous decline in the price of waste paper raw materials has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, and it is expected that corrugated paper prices will remain weak and stable in the short term.

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