SunSirs: Wood Pulp Prices Continue to Decline and Operate weakly and steadily in the Short Term

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both showed a downward trend last week. On February 21, 2025, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,626 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the average price on February 16. On February 21st, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,860 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.21% compared to the average price on February 16th.

On the supply side: According to post holiday data, the Spring Festival shutdown combined with a large amount of imported pulp arriving at the port has resulted in unexpected accumulation of pulp in domestic ports, leading to a year-on-year increase in pulp inventory in February. Recently, the inventory of ports in the five regions has reached a historical high of 2.3 million tons, putting some pressure on port inventory.

On the demand side: Although production enterprises have resumed work one after another and the operating rate of paper mills has increased to varying degrees, the recovery of downstream paper production and sales has not shown unexpected improvement, and even has shown some weakness. Downstream raw paper enterprises are mainly undergoing routine maintenance or consuming raw material inventory in the early stage, so their demand for wood pulp is still weak.

Domestic port data: Last week, pulp port inventory showed a trend of destocking, but the inventory level of mainstream sample ports in China is at a high level since 2024. As of February 20, 2025, the sample cycle of mainstream pulp ports in China showed destocking, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.

In terms of futures: Last week, pulp futures prices fluctuated downward. As of February 21, 2025, the opening price of the main contract sp2505 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,036 RMB/ton, the closing price was 6,034 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,070 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 0.03%. The trading volume was 133,300 lots, and the position was 137,364 lots.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current supply and inventory of wood pulp are still at a high level, and the downstream paper end replenishment stage has ended and entered the traditional off-season. Therefore, the demand for wood pulp may decline, and paper mills mainly consume inventory. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will remain weak and stable.

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