SunSirs: Dominated by Negative Factors, China PE Experiencing a Narrow Downward Trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8,261 RMB/ton on February 20th and 8,246 RMB/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.18% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10,183 RMB/ton on February 20th and 10,133 RMB/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.49% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8,412 RMB/ton on February 20th and 8,387 RMB/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.30% during this period.

Recently, the international oil price trend on the cost side has fallen, and the cost side is weak, which is bearish for the PE market. The pressure on the supply side is still ongoing, with stable deployment of new production capacity in the early stages, and plans to restart some maintenance facilities at the end of February. The peak season for plastic film is about to begin, but the demand for greenhouse film has entered the off-season. The market order follow-up is insufficient, and traders mainly offer discounts for shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in quotations.

The unexpected increase in finished oil inventories in the United States indicates that the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged; The combination of the Ukraine Russia peace agreement has put pressure on oil prices, and there is a downward trend in cost side oil prices; Supply side inventory pressure remains; The demand for plastic film is gradually entering the peak season, which may provide some support. Against the backdrop of increasing supply and demand, it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on PE.

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