SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Price in February first Rose and then Fell, Maintaining a Range Consolidation in the Short Term

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both showed a trend of first rising and then falling in February 2025. On February 28th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,610 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the average price on February 1st. On February 28th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,820 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the average price on February 1st.

On the supply side: After the Spring Festival holiday, the price of wood pulp from overseas increased, supporting the spot price of imported wood pulp in China. However, due to the suspension of work during the Spring Festival and the influx of a large amount of imported pulp into the port, domestic ports experienced unexpected accumulation of inventory, resulting in a year-on-year increase in pulp inventory in February. Recently, the inventory of ports in the five regions has reached a historical high of 2.3 million tons, putting some pressure on port inventory. It is understood that foreign pulp mills still have maintenance plans in the first quarter, and there may still be expectations of tightening the import volume of wood pulp in China in the future.

On the demand side: After the holiday, paper mills resumed production and gradually resumed work, so the demand for wood pulp showed a slight fatigue. But recently, the United States has imposed tariffs on China, increasing the cost pressure on domestic imported wood pulp. Although the market price of wood pulp is at a high level, downstream paper companies have a slow pace of resuming work, and their raw material procurement mentality is cautious, resulting in limited demand recovery and insufficient follow-up in the pulp market. With the recovery of downstream paper production and sales, there has been no unexpected improvement, and even some weakness. Downstream raw paper enterprises are mainly undergoing routine maintenance or consuming raw material inventory in the early stage, so the demand for wood pulp is still weak, and prices have shifted from rising to falling.

Domestic port data: As of February 27, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.3 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous period and a month on month increase of 1.2%. The inventory showed a trend of accumulation in this cycle, and the main port inventory changed from destocking to accumulation. This cycle, the inventory of pulp at the mainstream domestic port Qingdao Port showed a trend of accumulation, with little change in the speed of shipment within the port. The quantity of broad-leaved pulp was more than that of coniferous pulp. This cycle, Changshu Port's inventory showed a narrow trend of destocking, with shipments exceeding 130,000 tons during the week. There is not much change in the inventory quantity range of other main ports during this cycle, and normal inventory changes are maintained.

In terms of futures, the main contract price of pulp futures is weak and fluctuating. As of February 28th, the opening price of the main contract sp2505 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,978 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,962 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,990 RMB/ton, with 97,700 transactions and 163,459 positions held.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current supply and inventory of wood pulp are still at a high level, and the downstream paper end replenishment stage has ended and entered the traditional off-season. Paper mills mainly consume inventory. In addition, due to limited demand on the demand side and the lack of rebound benefits for pulp prices, external prices have continued to rise, and there is also support for the bottom of domestic spot costs. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will maintain a range consolidation trend.

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