SunSirs: China Local Refined Petroleum Coke Market Rose sharply and then Fell in February 2025

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose sharply in February and then fell back, with an overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1,877.50 RMB/ton on February 1 and 2,545.00 RMB/ton on February 28, with a monthly increase of 35.55%.

Cost wise: International crude oil prices fluctuated downward in February. In the first half of the year, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States increased significantly, coupled with market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and Trump's reaffirmation of increasing US crude oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, market concerns about the potential drag on demand from US tariffs have weakened, while US sanctions on some oil producing countries continue. Market concerns about potential supply risks have increased, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+delaying production increases, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The acceleration of the Russia Ukraine peace talks in the latter half of the year has led to a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the United States may impose tariffs on multiple countries and organizations, including the European Union, causing a decline in international oil prices.

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been good, with active transactions. The price of petroleum coke continues to rise significantly, and the inventory of petroleum coke remains low. In addition, some local coking units have plans to shut down or reduce production, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke and benefiting the petroleum coke market. In late February, the transaction volume of petroleum coke from local refineries was average. In the early stage, the price of petroleum coke rose sharply, and downstream costs were under pressure. Purchasing was cautious, and refinery petroleum coke shipments were limited. In addition, some refineries adjusted their petroleum coke indicators, resulting in a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices. In February, imported petroleum coke continued to arrive at the port for storage, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the first half of the month, traders mainly executed previous orders, and imported sponge coke resources were tight, resulting in continuous price increases; Affected by the decrease in local coking prices in the second half of the month, the shipment of imported petroleum coke is under pressure, and some coke prices have fallen. However, due to the tight supply of imported low sulfur sponge coke resources, prices are relatively firm.

Demand side: Currently, the operating rate of metal silicon in Xinjiang is around 6 layers, and it is expected that there will be a small number of new furnaces added in the short term, but the overall growth rate is limited. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region remains stable at around 8 layers. Some enterprises in Yunnan have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of metal silicon has narrowly declined, with an operating rate of around 2 floors. At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

In February, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke saw a significant increase. In mid to early February, due to the continuous rise in petroleum coke prices, the cost pressure on calcined coke increased, and some companies suspended quoting and accepting orders; Affected by the decline in petroleum coke prices in late February, coupled with limited downstream demand approaching the end of the month, the weak consolidation of medium sulfur calcined coke was the main trend.

In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained at a high level. Sichuan gradually resumed production by reducing production capacity in the early stages, and most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total production capacity of around 300,000 tons per year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Currently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke is active, overall inventory is low, and port spot inventory is slowly declining. In addition, downstream enterprises still have purchasing demand, and it is expected that the petroleum coke market will remain stable and rise in the near future.

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