SunSirs: China MTBE Market is Deadlocked and Running

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from March 3rd to 7th, MTBE prices fell from 5,900 RMB/ton to 5,875 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.43% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 1.26%, and a year-on-year drop of 12.31%. The international crude oil market is not performing well, with negative news on MTBE. Downstream demand remains high and manufacturers' shipments have slowed down, with some areas showing stable to weak performance.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have significantly declined and have fallen to the lowest point of the year. The main negative factors are: the potential trade dispute risk caused by the US tariff policy, coupled with OPEC+'s slight increase in production from April, and the unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, all putting pressure on the oil market. As of March 6th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has continued to decline. Refineries have lowered prices and promoted sales. Intermediate traders are cautious in their ordering operations, while downstream users purchase according to their needs while consuming inventory. Market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Shandong Chengtai and Lu Shenfa have plans to shut down, and resource supply may be reduced narrowly. But due to poor early shipments, many manufacturers have accumulated inventory. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on March 6th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $13.28/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $690.89-692.89/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $3.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $758.99-759.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $11.79 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $743.99-744.34 per ton (210.07-210.17 cents per gallon).

The future forecast shows weak supply and demand. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market may weaken narrowly.

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