SunSirs: Thermal Coal Prices Fluctuate in a Narrow Range

Price:

The overall thermal coal price remained at a relatively low level this week. Specifically, both the long-term contract price and futures price of thermal coal have fallen to a certain extent.

According to the latest data, the long-term contract price of thermal coal in March 2025 was about 686 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton from the previous month and 22 RMB/ton from the same period last year. This price reflects the current supply and demand situation in the coal market and the price adjustments made by coal companies in the face of changes in market demand. In addition, there are differences in the long-term contract prices of thermal coal with different calorific values. For example, the annual long-term contract prices of Q5000 and Q4500 thermal coal in March were 624 RMB/ton and 561 RMB/ton, respectively, down 4 RMB/ton and 4 RMB/ton from February.

Qinhuangdao Port 5500 kcal: If the current quotation is in the range of 800-850 RMB/ton, it may fall slightly to 780-830 RMB/ton this week.

Mine mouth price (Shanxi Q5500): expected fluctuation range is 650-700 RMB/ton.

Coal mines in northern Shaanxi are producing stably and supply is sufficient. The daily consumption of power plants in the off-season has fallen, and Shenhua's external purchase price has been reduced. The market remains in oversupply and coal prices are weak; however, due to concentrated transportation demand at some mine mouths, coal prices have tentatively increased by 10 RMB/ton. In the future, we will focus on the rhythm of downstream replenishment and port transaction transmission.

Coal prices in the northwest market remain stable, and supply is mainly provided by railway power plants. Xinjiang coal is shipped to the Gansu platform by short-distance truck transportation to the southwest/northwest. The demand side is suppressed by the failure of industrial electricity consumption and the safety of thermal power plant inventory. Market coal procurement is weak, and only long-term contract replenishment is maintained. In the future, we will pay attention to the marginal impact of changes in daily consumption of power plants on demand.

Coal prices at the production site have risen steadily by 5-10 RMB/ton. The security inspection in the mining area is strict, but production is stable and supply is sufficient. Supported by the phased release of demand from metallurgy, chemical industry and stations, the number of cost-effective coal mine transport vehicles has increased, sales of some types of coal have improved, and market sentiment has improved slightly. The current industrial demand increase is limited, and the supply side is sufficient. In the short term, coal prices are expected to be stable, and the sustainability of the increase remains to be observed.

Port:

Port coal prices remain stable, traders hold prices, but high-quality coal spot is tight, downstream only purchases for rigid demand, and market transactions are light. Upstream and downstream operations are cautious, and short-term price fluctuations are limited. In the future, pay attention to the transmission of weather disturbances to demand and port inventory changes to sentiment.

Import:

Internationally, the FOB price of Indonesian 3800 kcal coal rose slightly to US$51-52/ton, and supply disturbances supported the mine to hold prices; Australian 5500 kcal coal FOB remained stable at US$72.5-73/ton, and Russian coal Q5500 was affected by frozen ports and weak shipments, and the CFR price fluctuated around US$80/ton. Domestic power plants in South China continued to bid for imported coal. The bid price of Q3800 of a power plant in Fujian was 468-479 RMB/ton, which was flat week-on-week; the ex-factory price of Q5500 of high-quality Australian coal in the spot market in Guangxi was about 800 RMB/ton, and the transaction was still light. In the short term, the price of imported coal may remain weak and stable, and the demand side is insufficient.

Demand:

At present, the coal consumption in coastal areas remains stable, but the coal consumption level in inland areas has dropped significantly due to industrial activities. The inventory shows the differentiated characteristics of coastal accumulation and inland destocking. The overall terminal inventory still fluctuates narrowly in the high range. With the approaching seasonal demand off-season and the continued loose market supply and demand, the terminal's willingness to purchase spot resources continues to be weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment momentum under the dominance of wait-and-see sentiment

In summary, the overall price trend of thermal coal this week is downward but relatively stable. The future price trend will be affected and restricted by many factors, and it is necessary to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes to make reasonable judgments and decisions.

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