SunSirs: Supply Pressure Remains, China Soybean Meal Market Continues to Bottom Out

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, since March, negative factors have suppressed the soybean meal market, causing a continuous decline in price. On March 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,722 RMB/ton, and on March 14th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,470 RMB/ton, a price drop of 6.77%.

Supply side: Customs data shows that the total import volume of soybeans in China for the whole year of 2024 has exceeded 100 million tons, reaching 1,050.32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The import volume of soybeans in China in January and February 2025 was 13.606 million tons, an increase of 4.4%. The import quantity of raw soybeans continues to increase, and the supply pressure has doubled. The soybean meal market is under pressure to rise and continue to decline weakly.

Inventory: According to the statistics of soybean meal inventory from SunSirs, during the National Day holiday in 2024, soybean oil plants were shut down for maintenance, and soybean meal inventory continued to decline until the end of the year, reaching 600,000 tons, a decrease of over 40%. As of the week ending January 24, 2025, soybean meal inventory reached a new low of approximately 550,000 tons. During the Spring Festival, soybean oil plants were mostly shut down for maintenance, and inventory was at a low level. In early March, the import of soybeans to ports gradually increased, and soybean meal inventory gradually rebounded, reaching a level of 600000 tons. The increase in soybean meal inventory has suppressed the upward trend of soybean meal market.

Futures: Starting from March, Brazil's soybean production has been abundant in foreign markets, and global soybean production estimates have been raised. The market for bean futures in foreign markets is not good. In the second quarter, soybeans were concentrated at the port, with multiple negative factors dominating. The domestic soybean meal futures market weakened and fell, while the spot market followed suit. The overall bearish trend in the futures market has limited impact on boosting the spot market for soybean meal.

Demand: After March, the demand in the terminal breeding industry is average, and coupled with the continuous decline in soybean meal prices, feed mills are cautious in purchasing soybean meal and buy it as needed. They are mainly bearish on the future market, and the soybean meal market is under pressure to rise and continue to decline.

The soybean meal analyst of SunSirs believes that in late March, the supply of imported soybeans as raw materials was loose, and the terminal demand was average. The boosting effect of futures market was limited, and the soybean meal market will continue to decline weakly in the future.

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