SunSirs: China MTBE Market is Weak in March 2025

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is operating weakly. From March 1st to 31st, MTBE prices fell from 5,875 RMB/ton to 5,610 RMB/ton, a 4.51% decrease in price during the period, and a 22.65% year-on-year decrease in price.

At the beginning of the month, the trend of international crude oil was not good, with negative news on MTBE. Downstream demand remained high, and manufacturers' shipments slowed down, with some areas showing stable to weak operation.

In the first half of the month, the overall trend of MTBE market was weak, especially in the northern region, where the poor performance of crude oil and sluggish demand for gasoline dragged down the market and showed a downward trend. The enthusiasm for downstream buying is average, and overall transactions are flat.

In mid month, the MTBE market trend was weak, with sporadic price adjustments as the main trend, showing an overall sideways trend. The trend of international crude oil is fluctuating, and the demand for gasoline terminals continues to be weak, with only sporadic periods of terminal replenishment.

As the end of the month approaches, the MTBE market is showing a trend of first suppressing and then rising. Some large manufacturers have not yet exported their products, and domestic sales have resumed. The supply of resources has increased sharply, and manufacturers have been offering discounts to increase production volume. MTBE prices have fluctuated and fallen, and after falling to a certain low level, it has attracted the enthusiasm of industry players to purchase. The single transaction volume of gasoline and oil tankers has improved, and the MTBE market has rebounded accordingly.

On the cost side, international crude oil prices showed an overall upward trend in March, but the average price fell compared to February. In the first ten days, the market was concerned that the imposition of tariffs by the United States would drag down the global economy and demand. US crude oil inventories continued to grow, and with OPEC+ expected to increase production slightly from April, international oil prices fell. In mid month, the United States once again strengthened its sanctions against Iran and took new actions against the Houthi militants in Yemen, increasing potential supply risks. Coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, international oil prices rose. In the latter half of the year, the United States continued to strengthen sanctions against Iran, and plans to also impose sanctions on oil producing countries such as Venezuela, increasing potential supply risks and leading to an increase in international oil prices.

On the demand side, as the Qingming holiday approaches, the market stocking atmosphere is gradually rising, coupled with the recent strong trend of crude oil boosting the oil market, downstream businesses have increased their enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, Shandong Chengtai and Lu Shenfa have plans to shut down in the first half of the year, and resource supply may be reduced narrowly. Dongying Shenchi started construction around the 25th, with an increase in resource supply. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on March 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $2.59/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $732.83-734.83/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $2.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $791.99-792.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $13.81 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $840.42-840.78 per ton (237.30-237.40 cents per gallon).

There is a narrow expectation of an increase in MTBE resource supply in the future, and there are favorable factors stimulating demand. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by consolidation and fluctuations.

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