SunSirs: Nickel Prices Hit Bottom and Rebounded Last Week (April 7-14)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the US tariff policy was fermenting, and nickel prices have bottomed out. On April 9th, spot electrolytic nickel fell to a four-year low of 120,875 RMB/ton. Subsequently, due to policy disturbances in Indonesia, the decline stopped and rebounded. On April 14th, spot electrolytic nickel was quoted at 124,650 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.6%.

Macro level: Policy disturbances dominated short-term sentiment

The US tariff policy has triggered expectations of a market economic recession, putting pressure on the prices of base metals. With the announcement of the suspension of tariffs by the United States, this measure has significantly improved the sentiment of the foreign market. Indonesia was about to implement a policy of increasing franchise fees, and the market was concerned about the rising cost of nickel mining, supporting a rebound in nickel prices.

Inventory differentiation: oversupply phenomenon continued

On April 14th, domestic Shanghai nickel inventory was 25,647 tons, a decrease of 1,519 tons during the week, reflecting the easing of short-term spot pressure;

On April 14th, overseas LME nickel inventory was 204,372 tons, an increase of 2,064 tons during the week, and the global oversupply pattern has not changed.

Demand side: stainless steel was sluggish, weakened support from new energy

The stainless steel market was sluggish. On April 11th, the reference price of stainless steel was 13,430.00RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.54% compared to April 1st (13,780.00RMB/ton), mainly due to terminal rigid demand procurement and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. The profits of steel mills were under pressure, and some enterprises were reducing production, which was suppressing the demand for nickel.

The demand for nickel in ternary batteries has decreased. From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 25.0GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, accounting for 19.2% of the total installed capacity. The substitution effect of lithium iron phosphate batteries was enhanced, weakening the expected growth in nickel demand.

Market outlook

The impact of Indonesian policies will continue, and in the short term, there will be a strong consolidation trend. However, under the influence of high inventory and weak demand, the upward space for nickel prices is limited.

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