SunSirs: The Crude Oil Market is Declining, the Retail Price of Refined Oil has been significantly Reduced in China

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on April 17th, and the retail price of refined oil is about to be significantly lowered. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced three upward adjustments, three downward adjustments, and one grounding. During this cycle, the crude oil market trend has declined, and the crude oil change rate has remained negative. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 will usher in the "fourth" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market has significantly declined. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.47 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.85 per barrel. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil prices has declined. On the one hand, the United States has increased tariffs, which has raised concerns about global demand for crude oil. This news has led to a significant decline in the crude oil market trend; On the other hand, geopolitical issues have reduced their impact on the crude oil market, and OPEC+ oil producing countries' demand for global oil will decline. This news is negative for the crude oil market, and the trend of the crude oil market is affected and declining. As of the 17th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was -9.45%, corresponding to a reduction of 480 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 465 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to a reduction of 92# 0.38, 95# 0.40, and 0# 0.40 RMB per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries has recently increased. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries has risen to around 54%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 80%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries has also increased. Recently, residents' spring outings and other activities have had a certain impact on gasoline terminal consumption, but without holiday support, gasoline terminal consumption is normal. Gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main trend, and intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the gasoline market has slightly declined.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has increased. In terms of demand, with the rise in temperature, outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units have started to operate more, and the demand support for the diesel market is relatively stable. However, the slowdown in manufacturing activities may inhibit the seasonal recovery of diesel consumption. In addition, the increase in supply side has suppressed the diesel market, and the trend of the diesel market has slightly declined.

Looking ahead, the current bearish factors in the crude oil market are intertwined, and based on the subsequent impact of the current US tariff policy, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long term. The supply-demand balance may be disrupted, and in the process of rebalancing, crude oil prices may experience severe fluctuations in the short term. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil has increased, and the demand for gasoline is average, with gasoline market prices mainly fluctuating; On the one hand, diesel is affected by the negative impact of crude oil costs, and on the other hand, demand recovery may slow down, with diesel prices being mainly sluggish in the later stage.

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