SunSirs: Cost Support Strengthened, and Polyester Staple Fiber Prices Stopped Falling and Stabilized

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has stopped its downward trend and stabilized since early April. As of April 21, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6,317 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.71% from April 9.

Analysis review

The raw material market was intertwined with bullish and bearish factors in crude oil. Based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long run. The supply-demand balance will be disrupted, and in the process of rebalancing, crude oil prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 63.98 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 67.26 US dollars per barrel.

During the maintenance of PX facilities both domestically and internationally, the domestic PX load has decreased to 73%. In the maintenance of Yangzi, Jiujiang, and Zhejiang Petrochemicals, Hainan Refinery and Pengzhou Petrochemicals have reduced their load and improved their supply. However, under the tariff war, costs and demand were greatly affected, and the overall situation was relatively weak. PTA was undergoing planned maintenance, and the industry's operating rate was temporarily around 75%. In terms of prices, the downward trend has slowed down significantly. As of April 21, the average price in East China was 4,330 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.19% from April 11.

Downstream performance was weak, demand uncertainty was high under the tariff war, inventory pressure was high, and cash flow surged and fell. The shipping pace of yarn factories was average, and some enterprises' inventory levels continued to rise, so the expectations for pre holiday stocking were not optimistic. There was temporarily no sign of improvement in the terminal weaving market, with insufficient follow-up on new orders and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The probability of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving remained around 63%.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the short-term cost support range was mainly fluctuating, and the tariff policy continued to suppress the export of terminal textiles. The demand mentality was pessimistic, and there were concerns about the decline in the operating rate of terminal weaving machines and the lack of clear direction guidance for polyester short fibers. In the short term, it may maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

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