SunSirs: China BR Market Continues to be Weak

Recently (4.10-4.22), the market situation of BR has continued to be weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of April 22, the market price of BR in East China was 11,710 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.72% from 12,290 RMB/ton on the 10th. The price of raw material butadiene continues to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has significantly weakened; BR production has slightly increased, leading to a slight increase in supply pressure; Downstream production is basically stable, but inquiries for butadiene rubber are light due to the impact of international trade trends. Merchants reported weak and declining prices, with mainstream prices in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze BR in East China ranging from 11,650 to 12,000 RMB/ton as of April 22; The price of some private BR is around 11,400-11,700 RMB/ton.

Recently (4.10-4.22), the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is relatively weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 22, the price of butadiene was 8,200 RMB/ton, a decrease of 13.66% from 9,500 RMB/ton on the 10th.

Recently (4.10-4.22), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has rebounded, with overall construction around 63%. There are still some plans to restart the maintenance equipment in the later stage, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is generally stable, but the international trade situation has an impact, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the rubber market and light inquiries. As of April 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 78%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 65% of the load.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the current price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened significantly; Affected by the international trade situation, downstream inquiries are cautious and market transactions are light in the short term. In addition, with the increase in production of butadiene rubber, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will continue its weak downward trend in the later period.

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