SunSirs: Analysis of the domestic ferrosilicon spot market this week (May 6-May 9)

1. Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, this week's ferrosilicon market is mainly going up. At present, the mainstream offer price of ferrosilicon 75 # in the domestic trade market is about 6100 yuan / ton, and the price of ferrosilicon 72 # is 5500-5600 yuan / ton, which is more A small increase.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

At present, due to the increase in costs (from 0:00 on May 6, the toll roads across the country have resumed tolling, resulting in increased transportation costs for the company), the company has few stocks (as relevant personnel said, most of the current factories are produced by ordering Mainly), downstream steel mills are profitable per ton of steel, the industry has strong bullish sentiment and strong willingness to hold prices.

Today, the latest information on steel recruits in the ferrosilicon market:

1. Xinyu Iron & Steel issued the bidding price for ferrosilicon in May, which was RMB 5,800 / ton and 5,830 yuan / ton for tax-included in-plant acceptance, up RMB 100 / ton and 130 yuan / ton from April, and the quantity was 1,500 tons.

 2. Jiangsu Zhongtian Iron & Steel announced the bidding price of ferrosilicon in May. The tax-accepted acceptance price for the plant was 5,750 yuan / ton, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that in April, and the quantity was 2,000 tons.

3. Jiangsu Binxin Iron & Steel started the purchase of ferrosilicon in May, the purchase volume of ferrosilicon grain size is 10mm-70mm and 800 tons.

However, as the iconic iron and steel company's bid for ferrosilicon in May has not yet been finalized, the wait-and-see mood in the market is also heating up, and most of them intend to wait for their final pricing to guide the direction.

In the steel market, the black commodities declined before the holiday, the steel prices fluctuated and closed up, the market consumption was still relatively strong, the inventory consumption remained high, the output growth rate slowed, but the inventory pressure was still large, and the room for steel price rise was limited ; While iron ore fundamentals maintain preference, price support remains, coal coke supply and demand are both prosperous, and high-speed tolls after the holiday cause costs to rise, but external coking coal prices are low, coupled with weakened energy demand, it is difficult to increase coal coke prices; overall As a result, the macro and industrial development will drive the black commodities to be stronger in the short term, but the expectation of weak inventory pressure and weak demand will also limit the rebound space. The medium and long term is still a downward trend.

In the futures market, today's main ferrosilicon futures contract opened slightly lower in early trading in 2009, and then the rear surface fluctuated all the way up. The highest intraday was 5848 points and the lowest 5766 points. The trading volume was slightly enlarged compared with the previous day. Obtained a bald-headed solid sun line. From a technical point of view, the daily average moving averages are long and upward, but the trend is still rising in the short term; the 60-minute K line hits 5864 points before the impact, and the follow-up focus is on whether an effective breakthrough can be formed at the 60-minute level. Then fell callback. In the spot market, market transactions were relatively dull, and market sentiment was tepid. On the whole, the short-term trend of ferrosilicon bulls is stronger, but as the center of gravity of the disk moves up to the previous pressure area, the breakthrough pressure is greater.

3. Future market forecast

In the short term, ferrosilicon is unlikely to fluctuate significantly. As for the later trend, it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in supply and demand relations and costs. This does not rule out the possibility that prices will rise again. The spot price of ferrosilicon is expected to rise.

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