SunSirs: Crude Oil Returns, Chinese Polyamide Slightly Rises

According to SunSirs data statistics, as of May 12, Jiangsu's polyamide DTY reported 15,167 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month, down 28.79% year-on-year; the polyamide POY reported 12,620 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, an increase was 0.80%, down 31.41% year-on-year; the price of polyamide FDY was reported at 15,750 yuan / ton, and the price remained stable, down 31.52% year-on-year.

The market expectation of restarting the economy in many European and American countries and the active production cuts of oil-producing countries have boosted crude oil prices. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, from April 29 to May 11, WTI rose by 112.07%. Crude oil production was reduced. The OPEC + oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier reached a production cut agreement. The first round of production cuts from May 1st will reduce averagely 9.7 million barrels per day for two months. According to the data released by the US oil service company Baker Hughes on May 1, the US oil is active and the total number of drilling has decreased, and the number of oil drilling has fallen to the lowest level since June 2016. Nearly 20 US states may resume economic activities, and fuel demand may further recover.

Crude oil support is strong, and tight supply has caused prices to rise. As of May 12, cyclohexanone rose 360 ​​yuan / ton in May, or 6.77%; caprolactam rose 1,367 yuan / ton, or 16.02%; PA6 rose 966 yuan / ton, or 9.32%. Affected by the surge in crude oil, as of May 9, Sinopec's pure benzene listing price was raised by 350 yuan / ton, and the listing price was reported at 3,100-3,500 yuan / ton. Last week, cyclohexanone's external offer was raised, the low market price was reduced, and the price in East China was 5,900-6,100 yuan / ton in cash. Due to tight supply of spot stocks and rising raw materials, Sinocaprolactam caprolactam was raised from 1,300 to 10,000 yuan / ton in May.

Previously, polyamide manufacturers adjusted the prices of their products due to masks and quotations, and the overall improvement has been made after experiencing sharp increases and decreases. For rising raw materials, manufacturers' quotations must keep up, the difference lies in timing. Some manufacturers rose during the period when the masks were on the market, and did not do their best to pull back. The rise in raw materials just to appease market sentiment and the price became reasonable. Other manufacturers are completely following the script, the raw materials are rising, and the quotation will keep up, but only for products with better shipment conditions, and the price adjustment action with general demand is less.

SunSirs analysts believe that the reduction in crude oil production and the expected rebound in consumption, if not unexpected, the cost side has strong support. At the same time, the economy in Europe and the US is expected to restart. China's textile export data in April shows that the textile industry is expected to try to rise in the near future.

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