SunSirs: Analysis of Domestic Ferrosilicon Spot Market in July

Price trend

At present, the mainstream offer price of ferrosilicon 75# in the domestic trade market is around 6,100 RMB/ton, and the quotations of ferrosilicon 72# manufacturers are relatively concentrated around 5,600-5,500 RMB/ton. The spot market is expected to decline in the short term.

Analysis review

Jiangsu Changqiang Iron & Steel started its purchase of ferrosilicon in August. It is reported that the purchase quantity is 300 tons. The quotation is as of 13:00 on August 1, and the delivery date is before August 31.

Near the end of the month, when most of the industry’s eyes are focused on the August steel plant bidding, the market is now full of wait-and-see sentiment, and the actual operating conditions are quite ordinary. The current factory’s ordering cycle is significantly shortened and there are fewer new orders, and the futures performance is not good. With the continuous outflow of goods from the delivery warehouse, the current tight spot situation in most factories has improved significantly, and some companies even have a small amount of inventory. Under such circumstances, the industry's confidence in the upcoming new round of tenders for steel mills is slightly insufficient, and most of them say that the decline has become a foregone conclusion.

According to the recent situation of the downstream steel market, based on market-related analysis, on the one hand, the futures performance is not good, the spot market sentiment is implicated, and the operation mainly sells, while the downstream is still cautious and just needs to get the goods; on the other hand, seasonal demand is off-season, even the mentality of hoping for growth is obvious, but the continued rise lacks momentum, and the willingness of steel mills to actively reduce production is still low. Under the pressure of supply and demand fundamentals, the lack of macroeconomic news boosted. Overall, it is expected that the steel market prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Regarding the magnesium metal market, due to the slowing down of market transactions again, the magnesium metal market is operating steadily today, and the market price is relatively concentrated around 12,850 RMB/ton with cash tax. In the short term, under the condition of weak demand, the current price of magnesium metal continues to fluctuate on the cost line of the factory. It is expected that the price of magnesium metal will remain in a dilemma, or maintain a weak and steady operation.

In the futures market, today’s ferrosilicon futures 2010 contract continued to oscillate. The highest intraday impact was 5,600. The longs were weak in midday, and the disk continued to decline. In the end, a cross yin K line was recorded, and the trading volume was slightly enlarged. There were 2,137 new hands on the day, with a total holding of 65,140 hands.

Market outlook

In the short term, it is expected that the spot price of ferrosilicon will decline when there are not many factory stocks and most orders still remain.

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