SunSirs: The domestic rare earth market rose slightly last week

Last week, the price trend of some products in the domestic light rare earth market rose slightly, and the trend of some mainstream praseodymium neodymium products in the rare earth market rose slightly.

In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide rose slightly. As of the 26th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 965000 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.12% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.185 million RMB/ton, up 2.60%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 950000 RMB/ton, up 1.06%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 946500 RMB/ton, up 2.05% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1155000 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.44%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.255 million RMB/ton, the price trend rose by 2.45%, and the domestic rare earth market rose slightly.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market rose slightly. Recently, the downstream procurement was normal. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some upstream and downstream production was affected, and some metal plants had procurement demand, which boosted the mentality of separation manufacturers, and the prices in the field rose slightly. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the spot purchase demand is still there, and the rare earth market is higher. Due to the normal supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and so on has been reduced, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the price increase on the floor is limited. In addition, the rare earth metal factory was cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the market price of rare earth in the field rose slightly.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the market price has risen slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in April 2022, China's automobile production and sales reached 1205000 and 1181000 respectively, down 46.2% and 47.1% month on month, down 46.1% and 47.6% year on year. The automobile production and sales have declined. Recently, the demand in the new energy field has been normal, the domestic light rare earth market has not increased significantly, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has remained stable.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China is stable. As of the 26th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.6 million RMB/ton, and the weekly price was flat; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2.595 million RMB/ton, and the trend is temporarily stable; Dysprosium metal price is 3.38 million RMB/ton, and the trend is temporarily stable; The price of terbium Series in China rose slightly. The price of terbium oxide in China was 14.55 million RMB/ton, and the price of metal terbium was 18.45 million RMB/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is relatively stable. The leading magnetic material factory purchases on demand, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market trend stable temporarily. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreases. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. In addition, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the market is maintained.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of +23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, which is flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earth will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production has continuously spread, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the normative governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, SunSirs analysts expect the domestic rare earth market price to rise slightly.

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