SunSirs: The Supplier's Advantages Were Stacked Layer by Layer, and the TDI Price Rose Strongly
October 14 2022 10:06:06 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the TDI price in East China rose from a high level after the festival. As of October 13, the average market price in East China was 24,366.67 RMB/ton, up nearly 4,300 RMB/ton, or 21.38%, compared with the price of 20,075 RMB/ton on September 30.
Analysis review
After the National Day, TDI prices continued to rise at a high level, with a one-day increase of 1,300 RMB/ton. From the perspective of market trading, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was not high, and a small amount of follow-up was also mainly based on rigid demand. However, the TDI price rose continuously, why?
External market: large overseas supply gap and strong demand
The 300,000 ton TDI unit of BASF Factory in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was shut down due to force majeure in March 2022.
The 250,000 ton TDI unit of Hungary Wanhua Chemical was overhauled in July 2022, and was operating under low load after restart in early September.
In August 2022, the 300000 ton TDI unit of German Malgenkostro plant encountered force majeure and has not been restarted.
The leakage of Beixi Pipeline led to the shortage of natural gas in Europe and the restriction of factory commencement, which has once again aggravated the tension of TDI supply in the European market.
Domestic market: release of information such as factory sealing, device maintenance, limited supply of large factories, etc
It was learned from the market on October 10 that Shanghai Covestro TDI was closed for parking, which was expected to last about a week;
On the evening of October 10, Wanhua Chemical released a notice on the shutdown and maintenance of the TDI device in Yantai Industrial Park;
On October 13, the market learned that the latest strike price of Shanghai Covestro TDI was raised by 2,000 RMB/ton to 25,700 RMB/ton for limited supply.
At the beginning of the month, there was a guide for big factories to list prices in October, giving a signal of market rise, and traders' offers rose. After the National Day, due to the impact of public health events in Xinjiang, the logistics transportation was slow, the delivery period of Xinjiang Juli was extended, and the market supply was tightened. During the week, the good news from the suppliers was stacked on top of each other. The market atmosphere was positive and the TDI price rose at a high level. Therefore, under the leadership of the supplier market, a sharp rise in TDI was inevitable.
Market outlook
The TDI data engineer of SunSirs believed that the overseas demand was strong, the focus of domestic factories was inclined to the export market, and many factories were limited in supply. The TDI spot was tight, the traders rose at a high level, they were reluctant to sell, and some of them closed and stopped quoting. The market was full of bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the future TDI market will continue to be strong and upward, with specific attention to the release of supplier information.
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