Recently, national policies have been frequently implemented to support the development of the automotive market and promote consumption in the automotive market.
On July 19th, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it will study practical measures to support the development of new energy vehicles in the international market. The State Administration for Foreign Affairs held a press conference at 3pm on July 19th. The Ministry of Commerce stated that in the near future, it will study and support the development of new energy vehicles in the international market, and promote the introduction of measures to expand automobile consumption.
From the trend of natural rubber in the first half of the year, according to the data from the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the natural rubber market in China first went up and then down, with a decline of 3.59% in the half year, which is generally weak; Especially since the sharp decline after the Spring Festival holiday, followed by a sustained period of low volatility for four to five months, domestic whole milk spot rubber in China has fluctuated repeatedly around 11,300 to 12,000 RMB/ton. The sustained high supply and weak downstream demand are the fundamental factors contributing to the sustained decline in the natural rubber market. The above automobile policies theoretically promote tire production through automobile consumption, thereby promoting tire companies' procurement of natural rubber, which is undoubtedly beneficial for the rubber industry.
In response to the trend of natural rubber market, according to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the natural rubber market increased by nearly 3% in the week of the release of the National VI Standard Policy on May 8th, and the domestic full latex rose from 11,450 RMB/ton to around 11,800 RMB/ton. Within a week after the policy announcement on June 2nd, the spot price of natural rubber full latex rose from 11,630 RMB/ton to 11,810 RMB/ton, an increase of about 1.55%. From the above two policy impacts, it can be seen that the natural rubber market has slightly increased in the short term, but the upward trend is not dazzling; Afterwards, natural rubber continued to fluctuate in the range, but the trend did not completely improve.
According to the trend of natural rubber in the past 7 days, the domestic full latex market of natural rubber in China decreased slightly from 11,970 RMB/ton to 11,900 RMB/ton from July 17th to 24th. There has been no short-term upward trend in the natural rubber market recently. Compared to the increasing supply pressure on the basis of high inventory, the relatively insufficient downstream demand under high temperature weather has created the current trend of natural rubber.
In summary, the automotive policies from 2023 to the present have demonstrated the country's support for the development and consumption of automobiles, especially new energy vehicles, setting the tone for high-quality development of the automotive industry chain, and establishing a macro policy foundation for the future development of the tire industry. These policies are favorable for the medium to long-term development of natural rubber.
In the short term, in terms of new rubber, the natural rubber cutting in the main domestic and foreign production areas is normal, and the production growth trend is obvious; In terms of imports, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 18% year-on-year in the first half of the year; In terms of inventory, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continues to increase, with the warehousing rate exceeding the outbound rate. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of tire companies has been relatively high recently, but relative to the high supply side pressure, there is still insufficient support. Regarding the future market, it is reported that in addition to the high supply pressure, the market is also concerned about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. In the short term, the natural rubber market may not be able to drive enough energy, and the market may still maintain a low range of volatility in the future, with a complete improvement in the market.
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