According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the spot price of natural rubber in China has been continuously rising recently. As of May 28th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,500 RMB/ton, up 2.69% from May 21st at around 14,120 RMB/ton.Recently, the natural rubber market has been on the rise, with the Shanghai rubber 09 contract fluctuating from around 14,850 RMB/ton to around 15,150 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14,900-15,000 RMB/ton, bulk at around 13,200-13,600 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 12,100-12,300 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 12,000 RMB/ton.

Cost side: Currently, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by weather, resulting in slow rubber cutting progress. As of May 28th, the price of Thai glue is 80.2 Thai baht/kg, with an increase in price; The Yunnan production area in China has been affected by drought, while Hainan has been affected by rainfall, resulting in poor rubber cutting and relatively tight supply of raw materials, leading to an increase in market prices.

On the demand side: Downstream tire maintenance enterprises are gradually recovering their production scheduling, with a focus on rigid demand procurement. As of May 28th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.7%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and overall shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of May 26, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 539,100 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons or 1.63% compared to the previous period. The inventory in the bonded zone was 71,400 tons, a decrease of 1.38%; The general trade inventory was 467,700 tons, a decrease of 1.66%. At present, the port is in a state of destocking.

At present, the price monitoring of natural rubber is at a one-year high, a two-year high, and a three-year high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the average price of natural rubber in the past three years is 12,659.47 RMB/ton, with a median value of 12,835 RMB/ton, a minimum value of 11,170.00 RMB/ton, and a maximum value of 14,500.00 RMB/ton. The bottom price difference (lower than the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 3,330 RMB/ton, and the top price difference (lower than the highest price difference in the past three years) is 0 RMB/ton.

The supply side is affected by weather, with limited domestic and foreign raw material output and high raw material prices, which will support the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side are in the off-season with average transactions. Tire companies have limited procurement and are cautious in purchasing high priced rubber raw materials; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to rise in the short term.

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