According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber market continued to rise in May. The spot rubber market in China was around 14.710 yuan/ton on May 31 and around 13.560 yuan/ton on May 1, with an increase of 8.48%. The highest price in May was around 14.710 yuan/ton on May 30th, and the lowest was 13.560 yuan/ton on May 1st, with a maximum amplitude of 9.22%.

In May, natural rubber continued to rise, with the Shanghai rubber 09 contract rising from around 14,050 yuan/ton to around 15,650 yuan/ton, and dropping to around 15,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 15,400-15,500 yuan/ton, bulk at around 13,700-13,800 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 12,700 yuan/ton, and domestic latex bulk at around 12,600 yuan/ton.

Cost side: In May, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam were affected by weather, resulting in slow rubber cutting progress. As of May 31, the price of Thai glue was 81 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 7.5 Thai baht/kg from 73.5 Thai baht/kg on April 30; The Yunnan production area in China has been affected by drought, while Hainan has been affected by rainfall, resulting in poor rubber cutting and relatively tight supply of raw materials, leading to an increase in market prices.

On the demand side: Downstream tire maintenance enterprises are gradually recovering their production scheduling, with a focus on rigid demand procurement. As of May 31, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.5%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and overall shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of May 26, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 539,100 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons or 1.63% compared to the previous period. The inventory in the bonded zone was 71,400 tons, a decrease of 1.38%; The general trade inventory was 467,700 tons, a decrease of 1.66%. At present, the port is in a state of destocking.

Market forecast: In early June, the supply of raw materials in the natural rubber market was tight, and in mid to late June, with the influence of weather, the situation of raw material supply shortage may be alleviated; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side are in the off-season with average transactions. Tire companies have limited procurement and are cautious in purchasing high priced rubber raw materials; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will experience high volatility in early June, and may experience a slight decline in the middle and late stages.

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