SunSirs: China Methanol Market Fluctuates and Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from May 6th to 11th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,635 RMB/ton to 2,684 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices increased by 1.83%, with a month on month increase of 4.04% and a year-on-year increase of 13.74%. After the holiday, some methanol units in the main production areas were repaired as scheduled, and some units unexpectedly shut down, resulting in overall tight supply and driving the mainland market to rise.

As of the close of May 11th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,550 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,553 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,535 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,540 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 4% or 0.16% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 210,508 lots, and the position was 868,043 lots, with a daily increase of -10,293 lots.

On the cost side, the available resources at ports are gradually decreasing, especially due to the tight supply of some high-quality chemical coal. In addition, the market still has expectations for the upcoming peak season, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support. The loose supply and demand pattern in the coal market will continue to improve, and coal price support will gradually increase. Preliminary predictions indicate that there is still a possibility of an increase in coal prices in the second half of this round after stabilizing in the middle of the month. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the actual release of downstream demand. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi formaldehyde plant reduces load, Liuyang Jinggang plant shuts down, and formaldehyde demand decreases; Downstream Dimethyl Ether: Yima Kaixiang unit starts at low load, Xinxiang Xinlian unit stops, and demand for Dimethyl Ether may increase; Downstream MTBE: Qingzhou Tianan has a construction plan, resulting in an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chlorides: Negative expectations for inventory and extraction in mainstream factories in Shandong, resulting in increased demand for chlorides; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjing is expected to resume normal operation, with an increase in demand for acetic acid. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, Chongqing Cabelle, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Jinmei Huayu, Xinjiang Xinye, Jiutai New Materials, Yanchang middling coal, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, and Shanxi coking unit maintenance; Jinmei Huayu Plant reduces production; Hebei Jinshi, Sichuan Lutianhua, and Xinxiang Zhongxin facilities have been restored. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 10th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 363.00-364.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 94.00-95.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 301.00-302.00 euros/ton, up 0.25 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, the short-term supply-demand contradiction in the market is not prominent. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will remain strong in the short term.

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