SunSirs: The Market is Weak, China Methanol Market is Hovering at a Low Level

In terms of ports, overall pressure remains, partly due to sustained import pressure and partly due to MTO maintenance at ports; Follow up on the recovery status of the remaining MTO maintenance. On the mainland side, the production of coal head methanol is still relatively low, waiting for further resumption of work, while the traditional downstream off-season negative load reduction rate is slow, and the inventory of methanol factories is not under pressure, resulting in a strong performance in the mainland. Overall, the rapid accumulation cycle of methanol in this round is coming to an end, but the profit of coal head methanol production is still high, and there is a risk of valuation decline.

In terms of ports, the spot price spread of methanol in Taicang has reached 09+5, with a slight weakening of the spread. The guidance price at the beginning of the northwest week remained basically stable. The inventory of Zhuochuang Port is 938,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from last week; The methanol inventory in Jiangsu is 490,000 (-1,800) tons, while the methanol inventory in Zhejiang is 179,000 (-43,000) tons

The domestic operating rate has reached a recent low point, and the coal head is expected to increase its operating rate. The 600,000 ton/year production capacity plant in Mingshui, Shandong is scheduled to complete maintenance on August 9th; The 1 million tons/year coal to methanol plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia is operating normally. The 600,000 tons/year MTO plant was shut down for maintenance on June 2nd, and the restart time is yet to be determined. Shenhua Xinjiang's 1.8 million tons/year methanol plant and 600,000 tons/year olefin plant will be shut down for maintenance starting from July 10th, and will resume operations in early August; Shilin Chemical's 300,000 tons/year methanol plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in mid August; Gansu Huating's 200,000 tons/year methanol to olefin plant will be shut down on January 9th, and the restart time is uncertain; Tianjin Bohai Chemical 600,000 tons/year olefin (MTO) plant shutdown; The operation of the 800,000 tons/year MTO plant in Jiangsu Sierbang is temporarily stable.

In terms of ports, the external operating rate remains high. Geismar 3# new plant in the United States with a capacity of 1.8 million tons per year has been put into operation; Petronas Malaysia's No.2 methanol plant temporarily shut down on July 25th and has since been restarted and is currently being restored. The Di polymer arian 1.65 million tons/year methanol plant in Iran currently has a low operating load.

Be cautious in short selling hedging. In terms of ports, overall pressure remains, partly due to sustained import pressure and partly due to MTO maintenance at ports; Follow up on the recovery status of the remaining MTO maintenance. On the mainland side, the production of coal head methanol is still relatively low, waiting for further resumption of work, while the traditional downstream off-season negative load reduction rate is slow, and the inventory of methanol factories is not under pressure, resulting in a strong performance in the mainland. Overall, the rapid accumulation cycle of methanol in this round is coming to an end, but the profit of coal head methanol production is still high, and there is a risk of valuation decline.

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