Price trend

In the first week after the holiday, most traders have officially started construction on the eighth day of the first lunar month, and steel mills that underwent maintenance during the Spring Festival have also resumed production this week. This week, the futures hot coil market showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising, and the spot market galvanized price has also adjusted recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of galvanized steel coils in China increased slightly in the first half of this month. As of February 8th, the average market price of galvanized steel coils in China was 4,460.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to before the holiday.

Analysis review

Fundamentals: This week, the volume of the hot futures market showed a trend of first holding down and then raising the price. Most businesses in the spot market started on the eighth day of the lunar month, while some businesses chose to start on the tenth day of the lunar month, while the end users mostly started after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival. The market transaction atmosphere was relatively light. Businesses also mainly dealt with miscellaneous matters before the year, and it still took some time for the market to officially become active. According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the overall production rate of galvanized sheet this week was 69.39%; The capacity utilization rate was 43.53%, a decrease of 3.95% compared to last week; The weekly output was 620,900 tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons from last week.

Galvanized sheet inventory has accumulated, but compared to the same period last year, the current inventory pressure was not significant. As of February 7th, the inventory of steel mills was 519,400 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons from last week; The inventory of galvanized sheet coils in key markets was 1.3518 million tons, an increase of 108,000 tons from the previous 23 days' statistics of 1.2438 million tons. There were still resources in transit that are gradually arriving in the market, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to increase in the near future.

Market outlook

Due to the fact that downstream terminal demand has not been truly released, inventory will continue to increase next week, and supply may increase to some extent with the end of the Spring Festival maintenance. SunSirs expects that in the short term, the price of galvanized steel coils may mainly operate as a whole.

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