According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both showed a fluctuating downward trend in March 2025. On March 28th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,540 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the average price on March 1st. On March 28th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,686 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.78% compared to the average price on March 1st.

On the supply side: In early March, there were still disturbances in the overseas supply side, and there was an expectation of a reduction in pulp supply. The external USD quotation fluctuated strongly, supporting the spot price of imported wood pulp in China. But as the Finnish strike draws to a close, it has had a certain impact on the subsequent supply of wood pulp. In mid month, the second largest professional pulp ship in the world, the "Itapoa", arrived at the Dagukou Port area of Tianjin Port with full load, making the short-term pulp market supply relatively sufficient. The unexpected increase in imports of broad-leaved pulp has led to high pressure on port inventories, resulting in a relatively greater decline in wood pulp prices.

On the demand side: Although paper companies resumed production in an orderly manner in March, they were constrained by the slow pace of terminal consumption recovery and the obvious lack of momentum for replenishing inventory in the industry chain. The spot market still maintained low trading volume operation. Although domestic and foreign leading paper companies have successively released price increase signals, the domestic processing end is constrained by poor cost transmission, and most paper mills are still on the edge of the break even line, resulting in a tug of war bargaining game between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. As the end of the month approaches, downstream raw paper prices continue to rise weakly, and there is little expectation of further improvement in industry production. Demand in the pulp market is limited, and companies are cautious in their inquiries about raw materials. They have a low acceptance of high priced sources, which makes it difficult to have upward expectations for pulp prices.

Domestic port data: As of March 27, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.013 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from the previous period and a month on month decrease of 1.6%. The overall trend of pulp inventory in the mainstream domestic port of Qingdao during this cycle has not changed much, showing a narrow range of destocking. The daily average shipping speed in the port has not changed much, and the quantity of broad-leaved pulp accounts for a relatively large proportion; Changshu Port's inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, with shipments exceeding 110,000 tons within the week; The inventory levels of other main ports have all declined.

In terms of futures, the price range of the main pulp futures contract fluctuates. As of March 28th, the opening price and closing price of the sp2505 main contract for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 5,714 RMB/ton and 5,724 RMB/ton, respectively. The highest price was 5,748 RMB/ton, with 151,600 transactions and 167,594 positions held.

SunSirs wood pulp analysts believe that the current upstream and downstream of the wood pulp industry chain are still in a stage of continuous competition, and there is currently no obvious upward driving force. However, there is support from demand and cost, and the space for further decline is expected to be limited. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will maintain regional price fluctuations and consolidation.

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