The domestic ABS market continued to be weak in March, with most spot prices of various grades falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11,250 RMB/ton, with a price level fluctuation of -3.64% compared to the beginning of the month.
Supply level: As we enter March, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has shown significant fluctuations, with overall load increasing narrowly by 1% to around 73% compared to the end of February. The average weekly production has advanced to a super high level of 130,000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has gradually risen to a high of over 190,000 tons, indicating that the supply of goods is still very abundant. There has been no improvement in petrochemical plant orders within the month, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery. Actual orders are gradually yielding profits, and more orders are being shipped. Overall, the supply side has poor support for ABS spot prices during the ten day period.
Cost factor: As we enter March, the trend of ABS upstream materials has collectively weakened, providing poor support for ABS costs. The supply-demand imbalance in acrylonitrile has not yet eased within the month, with over 80% of the industry's high load resulting in abundant supply on site. After a decline in the first and middle of the month, the price of acrylonitrile has hit the theoretical production cost line, and the role of terminal procurement entering the market at low prices to support the price has gradually strengthened. The market has hit a bottom in stages, and there is a trend of supply contraction at the end of the month. Spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Considering the overall abundant supply in the future, the short-term market growth may still be limited.
The butadiene market was mainly consolidating after a decline in March. Spot transactions within the range are relatively weak, indicating poor market momentum. On the supply side, the suspension of mainstream enterprises in the eastern region of China and the increase in arrivals at the end of the month are mutually pulling each other. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has shown a biased performance. Merchants have attempted to raise prices but have been unsuccessful. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.
Styrene fluctuated and fell in March. There are many imported sources of pure benzene raw materials, and downstream consumption is slightly weak. Prices continue to be under pressure, dragging the styrene market. The downstream demand for styrene is in urgent need of support. In April, styrene will enter a peak season for maintenance, and supply is expected to tighten. However, there is insufficient cost support, which will constrain the styrene market. It is expected that styrene will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.
On the demand side: The terminal side continues the previous flat pattern, and downstream buying in March is still lagging behind. The load of terminal factories is generally flat, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.
The domestic ABS market remained in a downward trend in March. The performance of the upstream three materials is poor, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost is weak. The load of ABS polymerization plant is stable with small fluctuations, and the inventory level is rising at a high level. Weak consumption on the demand side and insufficient procurement by downstream enterprises. Business analysts believe that the ABS market will have strong supply and weak demand in the long term, and it is difficult to find any positive results. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation.
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