1. Port market quotation
Northern ports (5500 kcal): The price range is 730-750 RMB/ton, which maintains a narrow range of fluctuations compared with the previous period.
Reason analysis: Under the weak supply and demand pattern, traders are affected by the inverted cost and have a low willingness to ship, while the purchasing demand of downstream power plants is suppressed by the seasonal decline, resulting in a lack of unilateral price drive.
2. Market trend:
1. Demand side: The rise in temperature has led to a decrease in residential electricity and heating demand, and the daily consumption of power plants has fallen month-on-month. The inventory of terminal power plants is in a reasonable range, and procurement is mainly based on rigid replenishment, and the market transaction is light.
2. Supply side: The main coal transportation lines such as the Daqin Line have entered the spring centralized maintenance period, and the average daily shipment volume has dropped by about 20%, and the port transfer volume has decreased. The strong pit mouth coal price and the increase in transportation costs have generally suppressed the enthusiasm of traders.
Under the weak supply and demand, coal prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 730-760 RMB/ton, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of supply recovery after the maintenance.
3. Imported coal market:
1. Import cost pressure: Affected by the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate (assuming the exchange rate ≈ 7.0) and the high international shipping costs, the estimated landed cost of Indonesian 3800 kcal is about 420-440 RMB/ton (FOB 50 US dollars + freight 10 US dollars/ton), which is close to the winning bid price of domestic power plants (458 RMB/ton), and the profit margin is limited. Australia 5500 kcal FOB 71 US dollars/ton, the landed price is about 600-620 RMB/ton, which is significantly lower than the domestic price of coal with the same calorific value (730-750 RMB/ton), but due to geopolitical restrictions, the actual import volume is limited.
2. Power plant winning bid price: CCI3800: 458 RMB/ton (weekly-month-on-week -1 RMB), reflecting the weak demand for low-calorie coal.
CCI5500: 694 RMB/ton (weekly +2 RMB), the price difference with the port widened to 36-56 RMB/ton, indicating that the structural demand for high-calorie coal in power plants still exists.
IV. Market prediction
The short-term trend (April-May) price center is expected to fluctuate in the range of 725-760 RMB. The key observation point: the speed of port inventory repair after the Daqin Line maintenance on April 20.
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