Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in January

According to SunSirs' commodity cobalt price analysis system: on January 15th, the price of cobalt was 455,800 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to the price of 462,100 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a drop of 1.36%. The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo has increased the expected supply in the cobalt market, and coupled with a decrease in demand in January, the price of cobalt fluctuated downwards during the month.

Cobalt market supply trends

On December 22, 2025, news from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reported that Tenke Fungurume Mining, a subsidiary of China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (CMOC), the world's second-largest cobalt producer, officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. As cobalt exports from the DRC continue, expectations for a recovery in cobalt supply were rising. However, global cobalt raw material supply is highly concentrated in a few countries, including the DRC. The DRC's significant reduction in export quotas and the imposition of customs clearance deadlines make it difficult to alleviate the cobalt market supply shortage. Furthermore, planned nickel-cobalt projects that could provide supplementary supply are experiencing delays in production due to lagging infrastructure development, making it difficult to effectively fill the cobalt market supply gap in the short term. Increased environmental standards and other factors are also further restricting short-term capacity release, resulting in a continued overall shortage in the cobalt market.

Cobalt market demand trends

Due to the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, January and February are traditionally off-season for sales, leading to lower production activity among companies and numerous plant shutdowns in the automotive industry. The reduced demand for new energy vehicles has resulted in decreased procurement of power batteries, leading to a weak demand for cobalt in the power battery market. The latest performance guidance released by some leading companies in the industry chain indicates that their business focus is rapidly shifting towards high-end products (such as high-nickel cathode materials). In the power battery sector, which is the main driver of cobalt demand, the weak demand for cobalt is putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, reducing the support for price increases.

Market Overview and Future Outlook

According to data analysts at SunSirs, the slight decline in cobalt prices in January was mainly due to the interplay between the long-term expectation of a recovery in cobalt supply and the current weak demand. Looking ahead, this supply-demand dynamic is unlikely to continue. Due to logistical delays, cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China are expected to arrive mainly in April, making supply shortages the dominant theme in the first quarter. On the demand side, downstream stockpiling before the Spring Festival will lead to a small peak in cobalt demand, and coupled with the resumption of operations by automakers after the holiday, the cobalt supply shortage may intensify. Cobalt prices may stop falling and rebound in late January, potentially experiencing a small surge in February.

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