The price difference of corn between the Northeast and southern regions is close to a historical high. Both policy-based releases and wheat auctions have limited the upward movement of corn prices, and corn prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend in the short term.
As of January 15, the progress of corn sales in the northeast production area was 52%, 3% faster than the same period in 2025, with a weekly increase of 3%, which was lower than the 8% weekly increase at the beginning of December 2025. There was a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grassroots level. The progress of grain sales in North China reached 48%, 3% slower than the same period in 2025, with a weekly increase of 3%. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain increased slightly, and the weekly shipment volume was stable. As of January 16, the national average weekly price of corn was 2,317 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton from the previous week.
As of January 9, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports stood at 1.332 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 206,000 tons, and lower than the 4.618 million tons in the same period of 2025. In the same week, the total shipment volume from the four northern ports was 695,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 102,000 tons, and higher than the 615,000 tons in the same period of 2025. The domestic corn inventory at Guangdong Port totaled 497,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous week, while the foreign trade inventory was 264,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The combined inventory of domestic and foreign trade was 761,000 tons, lower than the 1.806 million tons in the same period of 2025. Although the total weekly inventory of domestic and foreign trade increased, it was still the lowest in the same period of the past three years.
The downstream of livestock and poultry breeding is replenishing inventories, while the consumption of deep processing is decreasing year-on-year.
As of January 15, the breeding profit under the self-breeding and self-raising model of live pigs was 25.77 CNY per head, an increase of 26 CNY per head compared with the previous week. The breeding profit under the purchased piglet model was -100.5 CNY per head, an increase of 29 CNY per head compared with the previous week. The breeding profit of laying hens was -0.04 CNY per catty, slightly higher than -0.28 CNY per catty in the previous week. Feed factories supplemented their inventories by auctioning corn, and the number of physical inventory days mainly increased, but there was no concentrated inventory replenishment. As of January 15, the average number of days of inventory available for feed enterprises nationwide was 31.15 days, an increase of 1.05 days compared with the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 3.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.71%.
As of January 14, the total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.59 million tons, an increase of 1.41% month-on-month. Although the inventory increased, it was still the lowest in the same period in nearly three years. Deep processing enterprises in the Northeast region continued to raise prices for purchases, and the arrival volume of corn in North China was stable. From January 8 to January 14, 149 major deep processing enterprises nationwide consumed a total of 1.3559 million tons of corn, a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous week and lower than the 1.41 million tons in the same period of 2025. As of January 9, the profit from corn-to-ethanol production in Heilongjiang was -742 CNY/ton, lower than -377 CNY/ton in the same period of 2025, and the profit from corn starch processing was -79 CNY/ton, lower than 5 CNY/ton in the same period of 2025. Despite the slight increase in starch prices, corn prices were relatively strong, processing losses expanded, starch inventories were high, and downstream procurement demand was weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the start of stockpiling for the Spring Festival.
Where will the price of corn go?
Most institutions predict that the increase in production in 2025 will be small, with imports in the 2025/2026 season ranging from 5 million to 6 million tons, which is relatively low. The reason why downstream players are rushing to bid for reserve grains is mainly that these grains have low moisture content, no additional costs, a short outbound cycle, and price advantages. At this stage, the market is unwilling to chase higher spot prices but instead rushes to bid for reserve grains, which indirectly indicates that there is still uncertainty about the future corn market. This has led to the fact that the increase in corn spot prices after New Year's Day has been less than that of futures prices. The North China region is still promoting the purchase of grains from Northeast China. In the short term, auctioned grains and other supplies cannot quickly reverse the supply and demand pattern. Recently, snow and rain in northern regions have affected road transportation, and channel and terminal inventories have not accumulated significantly. The recent improvement in the profitability of poultry and livestock breeding will also promote stockpiling for the Spring Festival, and there is also purchasing demand in deep processing. However, the price difference between corn in Northeast China and southern regions is close to a historical high. Policy-based releases and wheat auctions have restricted the upward potential of corn prices, and corn prices will remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. If the current grain sales at the grassroots level continue to be slow and temperatures rise in March after the Spring Festival, the selling pressure will be delayed. At that time, the impact of wheat used as feed substitute, policy auctions, and imported corn will be greater, and corn prices will weaken periodically, but the downside space will be relatively limited.
