Price trend
According to SunSirs' commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices showed a weak trend last week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 690 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 668 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.19%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.86%.
On January 22nd, SunSirs' chemical index was 787 points, an increase of 2 points compared to the previous day, a decrease of 43.79% compared to the highest point of 1,400 points (2021-10-23) in the cycle, and an increase of 31.61% compared to the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)
Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices weakened last week. In Shandong province, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 590-690 RMB/ton. In Jiangsu province, caustic soda prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 700-810 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, caustic soda prices consolidated, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 2,150-2,250 RMB/ton (on a 100% basis). Last week, the supply of caustic soda remained ample, and companies did not show significant inventory reduction. Several production units reduced output, but quickly resumed operations. Downstream alumina producers showed generally low purchasing activity recently. In northern China, due to weather conditions and reduced stockpiling before the Spring Festival, the market remained in a stalemate, with most buyers purchasing caustic soda only as needed. It is expected that the alumina market will fluctuate with a downward bias in the near future.
Market outlook
According to analysts at SunSirs, caustic soda prices were weak recently, with domestic downstream buyers purchasing mainly on demand. There were no positive factors supporting the Shandong market next week, and demand had not improved substantially. Order placements from outside Shandong Province had largely concluded. Considering the supply and demand dynamics, it is expected that caustic soda prices will continue to maintain a weak and consolidating trend in the coming period, depending on downstream market demand.
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