Price trend
According to monitoring data from the SunSirs' commodity price analysis system: As of January 23rd, the price of 0# zinc was 24,618 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to the price of 24,402 RMB/ton on January 19th.
After experiencing a significant surge in zinc prices in the first half of the month, zinc prices last week fluctuated within a correction range, showing clear signs of stabilizing and rebounding.
Macroeconomic Factors
At the beginning of the week, the weakening U.S. dollar index, coupled with China's GDP data for 2025 meeting expectations, boosted market sentiment and supported zinc prices.
Raw materials
As of January 23, the import window for zinc ore in China remained open; however, the number of quotes from import traders was limited, resulting in processing fees for zinc concentrate remaining at a low level. Although smelter profits have recovered somewhat, the increase in production volume had been relatively limited.
Supply and Demand
The domestic market entered its off-season, and demand was showing signs of weakness: As the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream industries such as galvanizing had begun their holiday shutdowns, leading to a weakening of market demand. Although domestic social inventories decreased to some extent later this week, overall demand support was clearly insufficient, causing the premium for Shanghai spot zinc to remain stagnant at a low level. The continuous accumulation of domestic zinc ingot inventories and the reality of weakening demand had become the main factors suppressing Shanghai zinc prices.
Operating rates at downstream primary processing companies were showing a continuous downward trend. Affected by multiple factors including environmental production restrictions, reduced order volumes, and high prices, companies producing galvanized steel, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were showing significantly lower purchasing intentions, leading to increasing pressure from rising finished product inventories. As the Spring Festival approaching, downstream companies were gradually beginning to shut down operations, further weakening market demand.
Market Outlook
In the short term, zinc prices are likely to remain volatile. Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, market activity is subdued, and the weak supply and demand situation is unlikely to change in the short term.
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