The domestic polyethylene market staged a remarkable turnaround at the start of 2026. Driven by escalating international geopolitical tensions and favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, market quotations surged steadily. High-pressure polyethylene products exhibited a pronounced V-shaped recovery, with spot supplies becoming scarce—so scarce that trucks carrying the material were hard to come by. Traders shifted to pre-sales as the primary strategy, while heightened market sentiment spurred active restocking efforts among industry players.
As of January 13th, using East China's domestic material as an example: - Mainstream UHMWPE film prices reached 9,200-9,300 RMB/ton, up 750-800 RMB/ton from late December 2025; - Mainstream LMPE film prices stood at 6,690-7,000 RMB/ton, rising 340-500 RMB/ton from late December 2025; Low-pressure polyethylene film prices ranged from 6,900 to 7,600 RMB/ton, up approximately 100 RMB/ton from late December; low-pressure polyethylene filament prices stood at 6,800-7,400 RMB/ton, rising by 150-550 RMB/ton over the same period. Mainstream LDPE injection molding prices range from 6,700 to 7,150 RMB/ton, up 50-150 RMB/ton compared to late December last year; mainstream LDPE hollow molding prices range from 6,900 to 7,250 RMB/ton, with the low end showing little change from late December last year while the high end increased by 150 RMB/ton. Overall, high-pressure products demonstrated the strongest upward momentum.
The current bullish trend in the PE market remains unchanged. On one hand, escalating geopolitical risks are supporting oil prices, significantly strengthening cost-side support for polyethylene recently. Coupled with the sustained upward momentum in Lian Plastic futures, this is positively driving the spot market. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions are intensifying. Attention is not only focused on Venezuela but also on Iran, where underlying currents are stirring. As Iran is a major source of China's high-density polyethylene imports, the stability of its supply directly impacts domestic price trends. However, the seasonal slowdown in demand remains a reality. Currently in the traditional off-peak consumption period, core downstream orders for agricultural films and packaging films are insufficient. Enterprises are primarily focused on depleting existing inventories, with overall willingness for sustained restocking and bulk purchases generally low. As prices continue to rise, following the post-holiday restocking phase, the pace of follow-up purchases by intermediaries and downstream players has slowed, with some adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Overall, supported by both cost pressures and futures market dynamics in the short term, the polyethylene market is expected to maintain a firm oscillation trend. However, caution is warranted regarding potential market disruptions from evolving geopolitical tensions and marginal changes in downstream production rates.
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