Price trend
This week, due to the restart of key production facilities that had undergone maintenance, the overall operating rate of the industry increased, leading to an increase in market supply. As a result, domestic propylene oxide prices experienced a significant correction. According to the monitoring system of SunSirs, as of January 22nd, the benchmark price of propylene oxide was 8,133.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.17% compared to January 1st.
Market analysis
Raw materials: After a rapid increase in the price of propylene in early January, the rate of increase slowed down or even fluctuated in the middle and late parts of the month, weakening the cost support for propylene oxide. According to the monitoring system of SunSirs, as of January 22nd, the benchmark price of propylene was 6,134.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.29% compared to the beginning of the month (5,717.67 RMB/ton).
Supply side: Previous maintenance work has ended, and new production capacity was being released. Major production facilities that underwent maintenance in the previous period (such as some facilities in East China) have gradually restarted this week, leading to an increase in overall industry operating rates and market supply. In addition, new production capacity from companies such as Bin Chemical and Wanhua, following their December maintenance, was gradually being released in January, further increasing market supply.
Demand side: Downstream polyether companies largely completed their stockpiling efforts in mid-to-late January in preparation for the Spring Festival and the policy window period (before the cancellation of export tax rebates), resulting in insufficient new orders. Furthermore, with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream companies' purchasing enthusiasm decreased, leading to a weak market trading atmosphere and overall sluggish demand.
Market Outlook
According to an analyst at SunSirs, this price decline in propylene oxide was a typical "increased supply and decreased demand" scenario. The recovery in supply, coupled with the off-season for demand, has shifted the market from a shortage to a surplus, naturally putting downward pressure on prices. It is expected that propylene oxide prices will remain weak and stable in the short term. Further developments will depend on changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.
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