According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the palm oil market rebounded in January, oscillating upwards with an increase of over 5%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of palm oil was 8,564 RMB/ton. On January 26th, the average market price of palm oil was 9,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.09%.
The main factors affecting the palm oil market in January are as follows:
Supply side: Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to decrease by 14.43% from January 1st to 20th. The export volume of palm oil from January 1st to 25th was 1,099,033 tons, an increase of 7.97% compared to the export of 1,017,897 tons in the same period last month. Malaysia, the main production area, is currently in a production reduction cycle, with a month on month decline in palm oil production in January and an increase in export data, which is mainly positive overall and supports palm oil prices.
Futures: Due to the support of the Malaysian palm oil market in the external market, the domestic palm oil futures market has been boosted. As of January 26th, the main contract for palm oil has closed at 9,092 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 176 RMB/ton, up 7.11% from early January. The futures market is rising, and the domestic palm oil spot market is also rising.
On the demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal oil stocking market has started, and merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing palm oil remains undiminished. The rigid demand has increased, and the palm oil market has seen an increase in sales volume and a rebound in transactions. Boosting demand, the domestic palm oil spot market is steadily rising.
SunSirs palm oil analyst believes that after the Spring Festival, the rigid demand at the terminal will decrease, and all favorable factors will be exhausted. The sustained upward momentum of the palm oil market in the future is insufficient, and it may mainly lead to a weak decline.
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