Macroeconomics

1. [Interest Rate Cut] Central Bank: Effective January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the reduction, the interest rates for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year agricultural and small business re-lending will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25%, respectively. The rediscount rate will be 1.5%, the collateralized supplementary lending rate will be 1.75%, and the interest rate for special structural monetary policy tools will be 1.25%.

2. [M2] Central Bank: At the end of December, the broad money supply (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 115.51 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.13 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Net cash injection for the year totaled 1.31 trillion RMB.

3. [RMB Loans] Central Bank: At the end of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.91 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion RMB for the whole year.

4. [Social Financing Scale] Central Bank: According to preliminary statistics, the outstanding social financing scale at the end of 2025 was 442.12 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%.

The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the whole year of 2025 was 35.6 trillion RMB, an increase of 3.34 trillion RMB compared to the previous year. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 15.91 trillion RMB, a decrease of 1.13 trillion RMB year-on-year; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 204.3 billion RMB (in RMB equivalent), a decrease of 187.3 billion RMB year-on-year; entrusted loans increased by 120.3 billion RMB, an increase of 178 billion RMB year-on-year; trust loans increased by 368.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 29.4 billion RMB year-on-year; un-discounted bank acceptance bills increased by 11.2 billion RMB, an increase of 340.5 billion RMB year-on-year; net financing from corporate bonds was 2.39 trillion RMB, an increase of 482.5 billion RMB year-on-year; net financing from government bonds was 13.84 trillion RMB, an increase of 2.54 trillion RMB year-on-year; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 476.3 billion RMB, an increase of 186.3 billion RMB year-on-year. 5. [US Initial Jobless Claims] The number of initial jobless claims in the US fell by 9,000 last week to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, reaching its lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, a two-year low.

6. [South Korea Interest Rates] The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, keeping it unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong pointed out that the central bank is focusing on housing prices, debt, and exchange rate fluctuations. If the central bank wants to stabilize the foreign exchange market through policy interest rates, it must raise interest rates by 200 to 300 basis points.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On January 15, international crude oil futures plummeted. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures March contract was $59.08 per barrel, a decrease of $2.80 or 4.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures March contract was $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of $2.76 or 4.1%.

2. [Crude Oil] Data from the US energy research institution Energy Research Unit shows that Morocco's petroleum product imports in 2025 have risen to their highest level in four years, with an average daily seaborne refined oil import volume of 249,000 barrels, a 3% increase compared to 2024. Morocco is completely dependent on imported petroleum products, and its energy policy goal is to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity production to 52% by 2030 to reduce its dependence on imported fuels. Currently, fuel oil accounts for about 3% of the power structure, while coal-fired power generation dominates, accounting for about 60%.

3. [Crude Oil] Four engineers said on Thursday that the Libyan oil ports of Brega, Zueitina, Sidra, and Ras Lanuf resumed exports on Wednesday after being closed due to bad weather.

4. [Crude Oil] Petrobras, the Brazilian state-owned oil company, said on Thursday that its crude oil production in 2025 reached 2.4 million barrels per day, an 11% increase from the previous year, and exceeding the company's own upper target by 0.5 percentage points. 5. [Petroleum Coke] On January 15th, Yiatong Petrochemical's petroleum coke price was quoted at 1,720 RMB/ton, a decrease of 30 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day.  ​​Sulfur content is 4.7%, and the delayed coking unit has a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year, with a daily output of 850 tons.

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